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Physician recruitment may soon become more challenging, even for urban hospitals. After years of predicting a physician glut, experts now are forecasting that the aging population and physician work force are leading us toward a serious physician shortage. The Council on Graduate Medical Education (COGME), a panel of healthcare experts that reports to Congress on physician supply and demand, long concerned about a surplus, has done an about-face and is now predicting a shortage of almost 100,000 physicians by the year 2020.