Scores Predict Readmission Likelihood
Executives at hospitals getting socked with readmissions penalties up to 3% of their Medicare reimbursement may dream of a formula that accurately predicts which patients will return within 30 days, and which of those they can prevent.
But a team from Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston, collaborating with a team in Bern, Switzerland, is closer to making that dream come true for patients with medical illnesses, (but not for surgical patients).
Through a simple risk score, they say they can identify roughly one-fourth of a hospital's patient population with the highest likelihood of being readmitted, and then within that group the18% whose readmissions were potentially avoidable, for whom more expensive, intensive efforts might be worth the money.
Among 9,212 adult discharges from July 1, 2009 to June 30, 2010, and 2,398 readmissions, the researchers were able to prospectively identify 879, or 8.5% of all discharges, who were at high risk of a potentially avoidable readmission.
Jacques Donzé, MD, lead author of the report published in JAMA Internal Medicine, and colleagues wrote, "This easy-to-use model enables physicians to prospectively identify approximately 27% of the patients as high risk of having a potentially avoidable readmission." They added that it "would allow targeting intensive transitional care interventions to patients who might benefit the most."
- How Top-Ranked MA Plans Earn Their Stars
- Readmissions: No Quick Fix to Costly Hospital Challenge
- How Hospitals Can Become 'Upstreamists'
- 4 Ways to Lower the Cost to Collect from Self-Pay Patients
- House Calls Key to Pioneer ACO Success
- How Telehealth Pays Off for Providers, Patients
- 4 Tips for Managing Employed Physicians
- Defensive Medicine Still Prevalent Despite Tort Reform
- WellPoint Dominates Nearly Half of Markets, AMA Says
- 'Overtreatment' Debate Circles Back to Lung Cancer Screening