What a GOP Victory in Massachusetts Could Mean to Health Reform

Polls have shown that most residents support the state initiative (though questions remain about whether it has been successful), so a vote for Brown is not a vote against health reform. It's more complicated than that.

One issue is the political climate. Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, a Democrat who was elected as a "change" candidate, has seen his poll numbers drop since he took office in 2007 and there is much concern that he could lose in the fall.

There is also the fact that Coakley was not initially embraced by the liberal base during the primary and was criticized as jumping into the fray too soon after Kennedy's death.

Critics also say that Coakley, the state's attorney general, has a boring personality that has not resonated with voters.

A vote for Brown is not a vote against health reform. The candidates' personalities and growing mistrust of the State House and Washington will be the reasons why voters may side with the Republican.

What would a Republican victory in Massachusetts mean symbolically across the nation?
Democrats are rightfully concerned about the potential of losing a Senate seat in "the bluest of blue states." That worry was evident over the weekend when President Barack Obama traveled to the state to deliver a speech in support of Coakley.

A Massachusetts victory for the GOP will be seen as a referendum against health reform, though that is not the case. Nevertheless, a Massachusetts victory could spark Democrats on Capitol Hill to lose their nerve on health reform and they could be more apt to weaken certain provisions. It could also, in turn, cause Republicans in Washington to stand up against the plan and embolden GOP candidates to run for Congress in the fall. More Republicans in Congress next year could also lead the GOP to rescind portions of health reform legislation in which it does not support.

Of course, there is a still a distinct possibility that Coakley pulls off an election victory today and all of these questions will be moot later tonight.

If the GOP is able to win the Senate seat, pundits will call it a referendum on health reform, but the real reasons will be: an unhappy electorate, an unpopular governor, and a Democratic candidate that simply did not inspire Democrats and independents.

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