"It's getting into a much more complex level on the demographic and understanding what do the levers and switches look like as you begin to think about owning value-based payment; having the data points and understanding the range of scenarios and understanding your market, where the large employers are, who is coming into the marketplace, what are the innovative projects that could emerge?"
Benton concedes that the modeling could be hobbled by considerable unknowns and guesswork on new markets and new players in the region and hybrid business models that meld payers and providers. However, he says uncertainty shouldn't be used as an excuse to do nothing.
"With modeling at least you have a basis for discussion across all stakeholders, whether it's clinical staff or governance at the board level," he says.
"All of these folks are all deeply invested from a mission perspective in one fashion or another and they have to have the information to be able to think about these issues in an intellectually honest fashion."