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Deciphering CBO's Estimates On The GOP Health Bill

By Kaiser Health News  
   March 14, 2017

CBO estimates that 95 percent of people getting Medicaid through the health law's expansion would lose that enhanced federal funding.

This article first appeared March 13, 2017 on Kaiser Health News.

By Julie Rovner

The Congressional Budget Office is out with its estimate of what effects the Republican health bill, "The American Health Care Act," would have on the nation's health care system and how much it would cost the federal government. The GOP plan is designed to partially repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act passed during the Obama administration.

Here are some of the CBO highlights:

• $337 billion reduction in the deficit. That's CBO's estimate over the next decade, taking into account both decreased government spending in the form of less help to individuals to purchase insurance and lower payments to states for the Medicaid program. It also includes decreased revenue from the repeal of the taxes imposed by the ACA to pay for the new benefits.

• 24 million more people without insurance in a decade. The federal budget experts estimate that people will lose insurance and that the drop will kick in quickly. In 2018, they say 14 million more people would join the ranks of the uninsured. It would reach the 24 million by 2026, when "an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law."

• 15 to 20 percent increase in 2018 premiums, but relief would follow. Monthly costs for insurance would go up at first, due to the elimination of the requirement for most people to have insurance or else pay a tax penalty. After 2018, CBO estimates that average premiums would actually drop by 10 percent by 2026 compared to current law. That is because the lower prices for younger people would encourage more to sign up. By contrast, the law would "substantially [raise] premiums for older people."

Kaiser Health News is a national health policy news service that is part of the nonpartisan Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation.


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