The Atlantic, July 18, 2014

Five years ago, with federal deficits soaring to record highs, it was easy to say that the future of U.S. healthcare would be hell. This view argued for dramatically restructuring the way the government spent money on medical care and other services. Some analysts said that if we wanted to preserve our future, our very way of life, it was necessary to make deep, painful, and brave cuts to benefits. It was a compelling argument. But five years later, we've relearned the lesson we seem to get whenever a team of experts unites around a prediction: Predictions are hard.

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