Demand for radiation oncologists in the U.S will outpace the supply 10-fold in the next decade a report published in this week's edition of the The Journal of Clinical Oncology says.
The number of full-time equivalent radiation oncologists entering the workforce is expected to increase by just 2% in the next 10 years but the numbers of patients diagnosed with cancers that require radiation therapy will increase by 22%, according to the report by Benjamin Smith MD, and colleagues in the Department of Radiation Oncology at MD Anderson in Houston.
Demand among adults age 65 or older, who have higher rates of cancer diagnosis, are expected to increase 38% in 10 years, and for minorities diagnosed with cancer, demand will increase by 45%, the report said.
The report points to the very real chance that cancer needs to be treated with radiation as soon as possible in order reduce tumor size and prevent growth. If patients have to wait longer for a limited number of available providers, appointments may be delayed.
"Shortages mean double trouble," Smith said. "Since research has shown that a delay between diagnosis and the start of radiation therapy can reduce its effectiveness, oncologists and radiologists must collaborate even more so the quality of care doesn't break down at multiple points."
The demand for radiation therapy was estimated by multiplying the current use of the procedure by projections of population growth as well as figures on current radiation therapy use.
The supply of these specialists was calculated by looking at the current number of board certified radiation oncologists and active residents who would be certified by 2014, and estimating approximate retirement ages and availability for full time work.
Smith urged more research to see if changes in practice styles can produce more efficiencies without compromising quality of care.
He suggests three strategies that may extend the supply of radiation oncologists:
1. The use of physician's assistants and advanced practice registered nurses can assist physicians to increase the number of patients who can be treated at the same time.
2. Shorter radiation treatment courses may be more efficient and just as effective as longer courses of treatment.
3. Increasing the size of residency programs to train more radiation oncologists.