8 Healthcare HR Forecasts Reviewed for Accuracy

Journalists love closure. I started the year with eight predictions for healthcare HR in 2010. So, I thought I'd end the year with a look back to see how well – or poorly – I did as a prognosticator.

Prediction 1: "The healthcare sector will continue to see job growth."
Verdict:Correct!

I will confess that this was hardly a difficult prediction. The healthcare sector has never seen long-term job contraction. We won't have the final numbers for all of 2010 until early January. But it's safe to say that the healthcare sector, once again, was a major driver for job creation in this country, as it has been for decades. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures for the first 11 months of 2010 show that healthcare job creation was significantly slower than it was during the middle of the decade. However, the rate of healthcare job growth in 2010 has nearly doubled the historically low rate of job growth in 2009. Look for this hiring trend to continue into 2011.

Prediction 2: "The hunt for qualified healthcare IT workers will intensify."
Verdict: Depends.

There was a lot of talk last year about where hospitals, physicians' offices, and other providers would find the people with the clinical and technical expertise to operate these complete interoperable electronic health records. Some providers are having more luck than are others. Generally, rural providers are finding it more challenging than are their colleagues in urban areas, many of whom report a glut of qualified help. That shouldn't be too surprising because that dynamic holds true on just about every other healthcare staffing issue, where rural providers are struggling to attract qualified people. Plus, the recession is making hospital employment more attractive to people who see healthcare as more resistant to economic doldrums.

Prediction 3: "Wash your hands!"
Verdict: Sort of.

I suggested last January that HR would take a significant role in improving employee awareness about the importance of hand washing. I'm not so sure that has proven to be the case. However, hospital/healthcare-acquired infections is still a huge issue, and two recent and alarming reports suggest that the healthcare sector has made little if any progress in preventing tens of thousands of hospital deaths will ensure that the issue remains on the front burner in 2011.  Besides, if your HR folks aren't taking an active role in hand washing campaigns, they ought to be.

Prediction 4: "Coming soon to a hospital near you: Unions.
Verdict: Spot On!

Labor unions are rolling healthcare. The 35th Semi Annual Labor Activity in Healthcare Report—conducted by IRI Consultants for the American Society for Healthcare Human Resources Administration—found union win rates in healthcare representation elections have held above 70% for five straight years. Even more impressive, in the first six months of 2010 the Service Employees International Union won 91% of its representation elections, and the newly formed National Nurses United won 100% of its elections. If a union targets your hospital for organization, odds are it's already too late for you to do much about it. 

Prediction 5:"Mandatory staffing ratios."
Verdict: Stay tuned!

Nurses unions are making staffing ratios a huge priority and they have a compelling argument that resonates with the public, although the movement has not gained as much traction in the last 12 months as I would have anticipated. However, I do believe it will pick up steam as the super union National Nurses United gains members and clout. Even if mandatory staffing ratios are not necessarily implemented widely, the mere threat of demanding mandatory staffing ratios will remain a powerful bargaining chip for nurse organizers.  

Prediction 6: "Cracking down on patient confidentiality."
The Verdict: Correct!

Patient confidentiality is not a fad . It is here to stay. Get used to it. The federal government has invested tens of billions of dollars in healthcare information technology, and it desperately wants patients to trust that their personal information will remain confidential in the age of electronic medical records. Woe betides any provider that violates that trust.

Prediction 7: "Healthcare sector employee health and wellness programs."
Verdict: Correct, for the most part.

I could have phrased this prediction a little better. My point back in January was that the healthcare sector has been something of a laggard in the wellness movement, and that the sector would spend 2010 trying to catch up with other industries that have had wellness programs in place for more than a decade. In that sense, I was correct. We are hearing more talk about hospitals and other healthcare providers that are finally recognizing the need to implement effective wellness programs to reduce the cost of healthcare coverage, sick days, and other illness-related expenses, and to improve employee morale.

Frankly, that's not enough. The healthcare sector – and hospitals in particular – should be leaders by example in the wellness movement. That includes not only implementing the wellness programs, but studying wellness programs to find out what works, what doesn't, and how much money they can save. Hospitals are often the economic engines of a community and the largest employer. If your hospital implements effective wellness programs, others will follow.   
    
Prediction 8: "More whistleblower lawsuits."
Verdict: Guilty!

It seems like every week the U.S. Justice Department is writing about a multimillion dollar whistleblower lawsuit settlement. Often as not, the defendant is a healthcare provider, a pharmaceutical company, or an insurer. A lot of the growth in the whistleblower industry in the last few years has deservedly been directed at the financial sector. There is good money in informing, which can garner as much as 30% of the value of the settlements for whistleblowers and their attorneys.

Let me know what you think is on the radar screen for 2011.