President Donald Trump told the American people this week that convalescent plasma is a potential new treatment for COVID-19. His announcement followed the Food and Drug Administration's decision Sunday to grant fast-track authorization for its emergency use as a treatment for hospitalized COVID patients.
This "emergency use authorization" triggered an outcry from scientists and doctors, who said the decision was not supported by adequate clinical evidence and criticized the FDA for what many perceived as bowing to political pressure.
With all the news swirling around convalescent plasma this week, we thought we'd break it down for you.
1. Convalescent plasma contains antibodies against disease. Donations are being promoted as a potential COVID-19 treatment.
"Convalescent" refers to recovery from a disease. And plasma is the yellowish, liquid part of blood in which blood cells are suspended.
When someone is infected with a virus, the body generates antibodies to fight off the viral particles. Enter COVID-19. If an individual who has recovered from this virus donates their plasma, scientists can isolate the antibodies from the plasma and give it to patients who are still in the early stages of their COVID-19 infection. This infusion, in theory, should help people fight off the virus while their own body catches up and makes its own supply of antibodies.
It's not a new concept. An infusion of antibodies via plasma has been used as a treatment for other types of diseases, such as rabies.
2. Some experts took issue with the data presented to approve the treatment and thought the FDA action crossed a political line.
An FDA emergency use authorization allows companies and medical providers to deploy unapproved treatments or medical products in a crisis. The FDA said healthcare providers would be authorized to distribute COVID convalescent plasma to treat suspected or confirmed patients with COVID-19 while in the hospital.
Before the authorization, some top researchers and clinicians at the National Institutes of Health felt there was not sufficient scientific evidence to support pushing the treatment forward.
"A randomized placebo control trial is the gold standard," said Dr. Howard Koh, who was an assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services from 2009 to 2014 under President Barack Obama. "If you don't have that standard and don't have some evidence from a high-quality study or [a randomized controlled trial], you are left with suboptimal science and treatments in the long run that may not prove to work."
Koh also said that for other COVID-19 treatments including the medication remdesivir, a randomized clinical trial had been done before the FDA OK'd it for emergency use.
When the emergency authorization for convalescent plasma was announced, HHS officials pointed to findings from a Mayo Clinic preliminary analysis as the rationale. The analysis has not been reviewed by other scientists and doctors.
Suspicions of a political motive behind the decision were heightened because the authorization came one day before the start of the Republican National Convention.
"The timing raises so many questions," said Koh, also a professor of the practice of public health leadership at Harvard University. "I think this announcement shakes the confidence of the medical community in the rigor of the FDA decision-making process."
Trump tweetedjust a day before the FDA's action, "The deep state, or whoever, over at the FDA is making it very difficult for drug companies to get people in order to test the vaccines and therapeutics. Obviously, they are hoping to delay the answer until after November 3rd. Must focus on speed, and saving lives!"
Scott Gottlieb, a former Trump administration FDA commissioner, offered his take in a tweet the day after the announcement: "Plasma may provide a benefit, and it could be meaningful for certain patients, but we need more evidence to prove it. The data FDA had supports an authorization for emergency use, where the standard is 'may be effective' but we need better studies to confirm preliminary findings."
3. Dr. Stephen Hahn, the current FDA commissioner, misrepresented the data on the treatment's effectiveness during Sunday's press conference. Hahn later corrected himself.
The Mayo Clinic analyzed outcomes of patients who were given a low dose of plasma and those given a high dose. Those who got the high dose had a lower seven-day mortality rate (8.9%) compared with the seven-day mortality rate of those given a low dose (13.7%).
Dr. Adam Gaffney, a critical care doctor and instructor in medicine at Harvard Medical School, said these two variables were used to calculate what is known as a "relative risk reduction," or the percent difference between the risk of two different treatment outcomes. In this case, the risk reduction between the high dose and low dose of plasma is 35%.
That's the number Hahn misrepresented.
"Many of you know I was a cancer doctor before I became FDA commissioner, and a 35% improvement in survival is a pretty substantial clinical benefit," said Hahn. "What that means is — and if the data continue to pan out — 100 people who are sick with COVID-19, 35 would have been saved because of the administration of plasma."
But, that was an incorrect statement. Hahn had confused relative risk with absolute risk, as many members of the medical community later pointed out. Absolute risk reduction refers to the number of people who experienced reduced mortality from a treatment compared with the rest of the entire population who didn't get the treatment. The absolute risk reduction in this situation is probably closer to 3-5 cases out of 100.
On Monday night, Hahn issued a tweetto set the record straight: "I have been criticized for remarks I made Sunday night about the benefits of convalescent plasma. The criticism is entirely justified. What I should have said better is that the data show a relative risk reduction not an absolute risk reduction."
Hahn also noted in the Twitter thread that the agency's decision was not political, but "made by FDA career scientists based on data submitted a few weeks ago." He also said the approval was not final and the FDA could revoke authorization if needed.
4. President Trump referred to the use of blood plasma during the RNC, and is likely to do so throughout the remainder of his presidential campaign.
During the first night of the Republican National Convention, in a meeting with a group of first responders, Trump told a police officer who had recovered from COVID-19 that her blood was "valuable."
"Once you're recovered, we have the whole thing with plasma happening. That means your blood is very valuable, you know that, right?" Trump said. Vice President Mike Pence also mentioned it in his Wednesday night speech.
5. Critics of the convalescent plasma treatment say there must be randomized clinical trials to prove its effectiveness.
Koh said receiving convalescent plasma doesn't appear to be dangerous, but a recent study in Chinadid report that 2 in about 100 people experienced adverse events associated with the treatment.
And multiple experts said a randomized clinical trial is necessary to ensure that the mortality outcomes shown in the Mayo Clinic analysis weren't confounded by other factors.
A randomized clinical trial would involve one group receiving a placebo and another group receiving the treatment. Who is assigned to each group would be completely random to eliminate bias.
Gaffney said he noticed that patients in the low-dose plasma group seemed to be sicker than those in the high-dose plasma group — which could have affected the Mayo Clinic's findings.
"To ensure that the effect we see is the effect of the intervention, and not a manifestation of differences in how sick the two groups are," the trial has to be randomized, said Gaffney.
The Mayo Clinic analysis also reported that some patients who received plasma also took remdesivir or steroids, which could have influenced their mortality outcomes.
Dr. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, said, at best, he sees the outcomes of this analysis as a hypothesis that needs to be tested in a randomized clinical trial. "No survival benefit has been proven," he wrote in an email.
In the 2014 elections, Republicans rode a wave of anti-Affordable Care Act sentiment to pick up nine Senate seats, the largest gain for either party since 1980. Newly elected Republicans such as Cory Gardner in Colorado and Steve Daines in Montana had hammered their Democratic opponents over the healthcare law during the campaign and promised to repeal it.
Six years later, those senators are up for reelection. Not only is the law still around, but it's gaining in popularity. What was once a winning strategy has become a political liability.
Public sentiment about the ACA, also known as Obamacare, has shifted considerably during the Trump administration after Republicans tried but failed to repeal it. Now, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic crisis, which has led to the loss of jobs and health insurance for millions of people, healthcare again looks poised to be a key issue for voters this election.
With competitive races in Colorado, Montana, Arizona, North Carolina and Iowa pitting Republican incumbents who voted to repeal the ACA against Democratic challengers promising to protect it, attitudes surrounding the health law could help determine control of the Senate. Republicans hold a slim three-vote majority in the Senate but are defending 23 seats in the Nov. 3 election. Only one Democratic Senate seat — in Alabama, where incumbent Doug Jones is up against former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville — is considered in play for Republicans.
"The fall election will significantly revolve around people's belief about what [candidates] will do for their health coverage," said Dr. Daniel Derksen, a professor of public health at the University of Arizona.
The Affordable Care Act has been a wedge issue since it was signed into law in 2010. Because it then took four years to enact, its opponents talked for years about how bad the not-yet-created marketplace for insurance would be, said Joe Hanel, spokesperson for the Colorado Health Institute, a nonpartisan nonprofit focused on health policy analysis. And they continued to attack the law as it took full effect in 2014.
Gardner, for example, ran numerous campaign ads that year criticizing the ACA and, in particular, President Barack Obama's assertion that "if you like your healthcare plan, you'll be able to keep your healthcare plan."
But now, Hanel said, the ACA's policies have become much more popular in Colorado as the costs of health exchange plans have dropped. Thus, political messaging has changed, too.
"This time it's the opposite," Hanel said. "The people bringing up the Affordable Care Act are the Democrats."
Despite Gardner's multiple votes to repeal the ACA, he has largely avoided talking about the measure during the 2020 campaign. He even removed his pro-repeal position from his campaign website.
Democratic attack ads in July blasted Gardner for repeatedly dodging questions in an interview with Colorado Public Radio about his stance on a lawsuit challenging the ACA.
His opponent, Democrat John Hickenlooper, fully embraced the law when he was Colorado governor, using the measure to expand Medicaid eligibility to more low-income people and to create a state health insurance exchange. Now, he's campaigning on that record, with promises to expand healthcare access even further.
Polling Data
Polling conducted by KFF for the past 10 years shows a shift in public opinion has occurred nationwide. (KHN is an editorially independent program of KFF, the Kaiser Family Foundation.)
"Since Trump won the election in 2016, we now have consistently found that a larger share of the public holds favorable views" of the health law, said Ashley Kirzinger, associate director of public opinion and survey research for the foundation. "This really solidified in 2017 after the failed repeal in the Senate."
The foundation's polling found that, in July 2014, 55% of voters opposed the law, while 36% favored it. By July 2020, that had flipped, with 51% favoring the law and 38% opposing it. A shift was seen across all political groups, though 74% of Republicans still viewed it unfavorably in the latest poll.
Public support for individual provisions of the ACA — such as protections for people with preexisting conditions or allowing young adults to stay on their parents' health plans until age 26 — have proved even more popular than the law as a whole. And the provision that consistently polled unfavorably — the mandate that those without insurance must pay a fine — was eliminated in 2017.
"We're 10 years along and the sky hasn't caved in," said Sabrina Corlette, a health policy professor at Georgetown University.
Political Messaging
Following the passage of the ACA, Democrats didn't reference the law in their campaigns, said Erika Franklin Fowler, a government professor at Wesleyan University and the director of the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks political advertising.
"They ran on any other issue they could find," Fowler said.
Republicans, she said, kept promising to "repeal and replace" but weren't able to do so.
Then, in the 2018 election, Democrats seized on the shift in public opinion, touting the effects of the law and criticizing Republicans for their attempts to overturn it.
"In the decade I have been tracking political advertising, there wasn't a single-issue topic that was as prominent as healthcare was in 2018," she said.
As the global health crisis rages, healthcare concerns again dominate political ads in the 2020 races, Fowler said, although most ads haven't explicitly focused on the ACA. Many highlight Republicans' support for the lawsuit challenging preexisting condition protections or specific provisions of the ACA that their votes would have overturned. Republicans say they, too, will protect people with preexisting conditions but otherwise have largely avoided talking about the ACA.
"Cory Gardner has been running a lot on his environmental bills and conservation funding," Fowler said. "It's not difficult to figure out why he's doing that. It's easier for him to tout that in a state like Colorado than it is to talk about healthcare."
Similar dynamics are playing out in other key Senate races. In Arizona, Republican Sen. Martha McSally was one of the more vocal advocates of repealing the ACA while she served in the House of Representatives. She publicly acknowledged those votes may have hurt her 2018 Senate bid.
"I did vote to repeal and replace Obamacare," McSally said on conservative pundit Sean Hannity's radio show during the 2018 campaign. "I'm getting my ass kicked for it right now."
She indeed lost but was appointed to fill the seat of Sen. Jon Kyl after he resigned at the end of 2018. Now McSally is in a tight race with Democratic challenger Mark Kelly, an astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords.
"Kelly doesn't have a track record of voting one way or another, but certainly in his campaign this is one of his top speaking points: what he would do to expand coverage and reassure people that coverage won't be taken away," said Derksen, the University of Arizona professor.
The ACA has proved a stumbling block for Republican Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Joni Ernst of Iowa. In Maine, GOP Sen. Susan Collins cast a key vote that prevented the repeal of the law but cast other votes that weakened it. She now also appears vulnerable — but more for her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court and for not doing more to oppose President Donald Trump.
In Montana, Daines, who voted to repeal the ACA, is trying to hold on to his seat against Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who used the law to expand the state's Medicaid enrollment in 2015. At its peak, nearly 1 in 10 Montanans were covered through the expansion.
As more Montanans now face the high cost of paying for healthcare on their own amid pandemic-related job losses, Montana State University political science professor David Parker said he expects Democrats to talk about Daines' votes to repeal cost-saving provisions of the ACA.
"People are losing jobs, and their jobs bring healthcare with them," Parker said. "I don't think it's a good space for Daines to be right now."
"President Trump marshaled the full resources of our federal government from the outset. He directed us to forge a seamless partnership with governors across America in both political parties," said Vice President Mike Pence, during his speech at the Republican National Convention on Aug. 26.
This article was published on Thursday, August 27, 2020 in Kaiser Health News.
Vice President Mike Pence portrayed his boss, President Donald Trump, as a leader who has reached out across the aisle to help during the coronavirus pandemic.
“President Trump marshaled the full resources of the federal government and directed us to forge a seamless partnership with governors across America in both parties,” Pence said during his speech Wednesday night at the Republican National Convention.
Clearly, the federal government has provided supplies and funding to states led by both parties in response to the pandemic, and Pence himself has held regular conference calls with governors in both parties. But Pence was speaking about the actions of Trump, not his own.
Pence’s comments ignored Trump’s multiple feuds, frequently with Democratic governors, about state-federal responsibilities and the pandemic response.
A Trump campaign spokesperson sent us a list of dozens of teleconferences and meetings that Trump or Pence had with governors, including Democrats such as New York’s Andrew Cuomo and Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer. In March, Trump sent a letter to governors thanking them for “stepping up to help America confront this unprecedented global pandemic.” The campaign pointed to actions by administration officials to brief governors about making available supplies, such as testing swabs, utilizing the National Guard, and reopening state economies.
Trump Argued With Governors Over COVID-19 Supplies, Tests
After declaring a national emergency over the health crisis on March 13, Trump directed governors to order their own ventilators, respirators and supplies, saying the federal government is “not a shipping clerk.” Governors in both parties shot back that Trump’s stance, and the lack of coordination from Washington, left states bidding against one another and the federal government for access to critical equipment.
Cuomo said it was akin to competing on eBay with all the other states plus the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Whitmer and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican and then chair of the National Governors Association, were among those pleading for better coordination from FEMA to ensure that supplies were distributed based on need.
“The lack of any centralized coordination is creating a counterproductive competition between states and the federal government to secure limited supplies, driving up prices and exacerbating existing shortages,” they wrote in a joint March 30 op-ed in The Washington Post.
A couple of days earlier, Trump said during a White House briefing that governors should be “appreciative” toward him and the federal government.
Speaking of Pence, Trump said: “He calls all the governors. I tell him — I mean, I’m a different type of person — I say, ‘Mike, don’t call the governor of Washington. You’re wasting your time with him. Don’t call the woman in Michigan.’” On Twitter, Trump said Whitmer was “way in over her head, she doesn’t have a clue.”
In April, Trump said that testing “is a local thing” and that states should turn to commercial labs for help. After he was blasted by governors from both parties, Trump said the federal government would step up efforts to get testing supplies.
Governors also called on Trump early on to enact the Defense Production Act, a law that gives the president authority to expedite the supply of materials for national defense, in order to ramp up production of personal protective equipment and COVID-19 testing supplies. While the president did eventually invoke the act to produce ventilators and medical equipment, he delayed efforts to do so and did it sparingly. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson called for him to broaden its use.
Trump’s justification for slow-rolling the act was that he didn’t want the government to intervene in the private sector.
“You know, we’re a country not based on nationalizing our business,” Trump said at a coronavirus task force press briefing on March 22. “Call a person over in Venezuela, ask them how did nationalization of their businesses work out? Not too well.”
In April, Trump said that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, had reopened Georgia “too soon.” In May, he criticized Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, for keeping parts of his state closed that Trump said were “barely affected.”
Trump said in mid-April that it was up to him — not the governors — to decide when to reopen states on lockdown.
Some Governors Bypassed the Federal Government to Work Together
Frustrated with the responses from the Trump administration, some governors teamed up with one another to get needed supplies.
In May, a coalition of governors from seven Northeastern states, including New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania and Delaware, joined together to buy personal protective equipment and ventilators and create a unified reopening strategy.
As late as July, some governors were calling on the feds for help and not getting what they needed. There were shortages of testing supplies, as well as personal protective gear. Washington state asked for 4.2 million N95 respirators. It received a bit under 500,000. It asked for about 300,000 gowns. It got about 160,000.
On Aug. 18, a bipartisan group of governors — five Democrats and five Republicans — announced they would be partnering with the Rockefeller Foundation to create a national testing strategy in the absence of federal action. The 10 states are Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Utah, Arkansas, Rhode Island and Virginia. Their goal is to buy and deploy 5 million COVID-19 antigen tests.
Feuds Between Trump Administration and States Continue
The Trump administration sought to pressure states to reopen schools for in-person instruction. In July, Trump threatened to cut off funding if schools didn’t reopen.
This summer, the Trump administration reduced the federal share of National Guard assistance to the states to help with pandemic response, despite pleas from governors in both parties. An Aug. 3 memo said that the federal government would no longer continue to pay for 100% of the tab for most states and that it would be reduced to 75% as of Aug. 21.
And when the CDC unveiled new testing guidelines that downplayed the need to test people who don’t show symptoms — about 40% of those infected — Cuomo and California Gov. Gavin Newsom said that they wouldn’t follow it. Asymptomatic people are thought to be significant spreaders of the virus. Both governors at times praised certain responses by the Trump administration to help their states respond to the pandemic.
Our Ruling
Pence said, “President Trump marshaled the full resources of our federal government from the outset. He directed us to forge a seamless partnership with governors across America in both political parties.”
Trump and top administration officials have communicated with governors of both parties for months in meetings, phone calls and written communication. But Pence’s comment ignores that Trump has feuded with governors over state-federal responsibilities, supplies and policies for shutting down or reopening. Trump also has suggested a lesser role for the federal government and said that the handling of COVID-19 should be left to the states.
Doctors have noted a troubling phenomenon associated with some COVID cases: Even after extubation, some patients remain unconscious for days, weeks or longer.
This article was published on Thursday, August 27, 2020 in Kaiser Health News.
Leslie Cutitta said yes, twice, when clinicians from Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston called asking whether she wanted them to take — and then continue — extreme measures to keep her husband, Frank Cutitta, alive.
The first conversation, in late March, was about whether to let Frank go or to try some experimental drugs and treatments for COVID-19. The second call was just a few days later. Hospital visits were banned, so Leslie couldn't be with her husband or discuss his wishes with the medical team in person. So she used stories to try to describe Frank's zest for life.
"Frank used to joke that he wanted to be frozen, like Ted Williams, until they could figure out what was wrong with him if he died," said Leslie Cutitta. It wasn't a serious end-of-life discussion, but Cutitta knew her husband would want every possible lifesaving measure deployed.
So the Cutittas hung on and a small army of ICU caregivers kept working. On April 21, after 27 days on a ventilator, Frank's lungs had recovered enough to remove the breathing tube.
After the removal, it typically takes hours, maybe a day, for the patient to return to consciousness. The body needs that time to clear the drugs that keep the patient sedated and comfortable — able to tolerate intubation and mechanical ventilation.
But doctors across the U.S. and in other countries have noted a troubling phenomenon associated with some COVID cases: Even after extubation, some patients remain unconscious for days, weeks or longer. There's no official term for the problem, but it's being called a "prolonged" or "persistent" coma or unresponsiveness.
Frank Cutitta, 68, was one of those patients. He just didn't wake up.
"It was a long, difficult period of not — just not knowing whether he was going to come back to the Frank we knew and loved," said Leslie Cutitta. "It was very, very tough."
Doctors studying the phenomenon of prolonged unresponsiveness are concerned that medical teams are not waiting long enough for these COVID-19 patients to wake up, especially when ICU beds are in high demand during the pandemic.
As Frank's unresponsive condition continued, it prompted a new conversation between the medical team and his wife about whether to continue life support. Although he no longer needed the ventilator, he still required a feeding tube, intravenous fluids, catheters for bodily waste and some oxygen support.
Leslie Cutitta recalled a doctor asking her: "If it looks like Frank's not going to return mentally, and he's going to be hooked up to a dialysis machine for the rest of his life in a long-term care facility, is that something that you and he could live with?"
She struggled to imagine the restricted life Frank might face. Every day, sometimes several times a day, she would ask Frank's doctors for more information: What's going on inside his brain? Why is this happening? When might something change?
Their candid and consistent answer was: We don't know.
"Because this disease is so new and because there are so many unanswered questions about COVID-19, we currently do not have reliable tools to predict how long it will take any individual patient to recover consciousness," said Dr. Brian Edlow, a critical care neurologist at Mass General.
Given all the unknowns, doctors at the hospital have had a hard time advising families of a patient who has remained unresponsive for weeks, post-ventilator. Some families in that situation have decided to remove other life supports so the patient can die. Edlow can't say how many.
"It is very difficult for us to determine whether any given patient's future will bring a quality of life that would be acceptable to them," Edlow said, "based on what they've told their families or written in a prior directive."
Theories abound about why COVID-19 patients may take longer to regain consciousness than other ventilated patients, if they wake up at all. COVID-19 patients appear to need larger doses of sedatives while on a ventilator, and they're often intubated for longer periods than is typical for other diseases that cause pneumonia. Low oxygen levels, due to the virus's effect on the lungs, may damage the brain. Some of these patients have inflammation related to COVID-19 that may disrupt signals in the brain, and some experience blood clots that have caused strokes.
"So there are many potential contributing factors," Edlow said. "The degree to which each of those factors is playing a role in any given patient is still something we're trying to understand."
One of the first questions researchers hope to answer is how many COVID-19 patients end up in this prolonged, sleeplike condition after coming off the ventilator.
"In our experience, approximately every fifth patient that was hospitalized was admitted to the ICU and had some degree of disorders of consciousness," said Dr. Jan Claassen, director of neurocritical care at New York's Columbia University Medical Center. "But how many of those actually took a long time to wake up, we don't have numbers on that yet."
An international research group based at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center expects to have in September some initial numbers on COVID-19 brain impacts, including the problem of persistent comas. Some COVID patients who do eventually regain consciousness still have cognitive difficulties.
To try to get a handle on this problem at Columbia, Claassen and colleagues created a "coma board," a group of specialists that meets weekly. Claassen published a study in 2019 that found that 15% of unresponsive patients showed brain activity in response to verbal commands. A casereported by Edlow in July described a patient who moved between a coma and minimal consciousness for several weeks and was eventually able to follow commands.
This spring, as Edlow observed dozens of Mass General COVID-19 patients linger in this unresponsive state, he joined Claassen and other colleagues from Weill Cornell Medical College to form a research consortium. The researchers are sharing their data to determine the cause of prolonged coma in COVID-19 patients, find treatments and better predict which patients might eventually recover, given enough time and treatment.
The global research effort has grown to include more than 222 sites in 45 countries. Prolonged or persistent comas are just one area of research, but one getting a lot of attention.
Dr. Sherry Chou, a neurologist at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, is leading the international effort.
Chou said families want to know "whether a patient can wake up and be themselves." Answering that question "depends on how accurate we are at predicting the future, and we know we're not very accurate right now."
A CT scan of Frank Cutitta's brain showed residue from blood clots but was otherwise "clean."
"From what they could tell, there was no brain damage," Leslie Cutitta said.
And then, on May 4, after two weeks with no signs that Frank would wake up, he blinked. Leslie and her two daughters watched on FaceTime, making requests such as "Smile, Daddy" and "Hold your thumb up!"
"At least we knew he was in there somewhere," she said.
It was another week before Frank could speak and the Cutittas got to hear his voice.
"We'd all be pressing the phone to our ears, trying to catch every word," Leslie Cutitta recalled. "He didn't have a lot of them at that point, but it was just amazing, absolutely amazing."
Frank Cutitta spent a month at Spaulding Rehabilitation Hospital. He's back home now, in a Boston suburb, doing physical therapy to strengthen his arms and legs. He said he slurs words occasionally but has no other cognitive problems.
While he was in the ICU, Cutitta's nurses played recorded messages from his family, as well as some of his favorite music from the Beach Boys and Luciano Pavarotti. Frank Cutitta said he believes the flow of these inspiring sounds helped maintain his cognitive function.
The Cutittas said they feel incredibly lucky. Leslie Cutitta said one doctor told the family that during the worst of the pandemic in New York City, most patients in Frank's condition died because hospitals couldn't devote such time and resources to one patient.
"If Frank had been anywhere else in the country but here, he would have not made it," Leslie Cutitta said. "That's a conversation I will never forget having, because I was stunned."
Frank Cutitta credits the Mass General doctors and nurses, saying they became his advocates.
It "could have gone the other way," he said, if clinicians had decided "'Look, this guy's just way too sick, and we've got other patients who need this equipment.' Or we have an advocate who says, 'Throw the kitchen sink at him,'" Frank said. "And we happened to have the latter."
Many hospitals use 72 hours, or three days, as the period for patients with a traumatic brain injury to regain consciousness before advising an end to life support. As COVID-19 patients fill intensive care units across the country, it's not clear how long hospital staff will wait beyond that point for those patients who do not wake up after a ventilator tube is removed.
Joseph Giacino, director of rehabilitation neuropsychology at Spaulding, said he's worried hospitals are using that 72-hour model with COVID-19 patients who may need more time. Even before the coronavirus pandemic, some neurologists questioned that model. In 2018, the American Academy of Neurology updated its guidelines for treating prolonged "disorders of consciousness," noting that some situations may require more time and assessment.
Some patients, like Frank Cutitta, do not appear to have any brain damage. Whatever caused his extended period of unconsciousness cleared.
Unless a patient has previously specified that she does not want aggressive treatment, "we need to really go slow," said Giacino, "because we are not at a point where we have prognostic indicators that approach the level of certainty that is necessary before making a decision that we should stop treatment because there is no chance of meaningful recovery."
Doctors interviewed for this story urged everyone to tell their loved ones what you expect a "meaningful recovery" to include. If confronted with this situation, family members should ask doctors about their levels of certainty for each possible outcome.
Some medical ethicists also urge clinicians not to rush when it comes to decisions about how quickly COVID-19 patients may return to consciousness.
"A significant number of patients are going to have a prolonged recovery from the comatose state that they're in," said Dr. Joseph Fins, chief of medical ethics at Weill Cornell Medical College. "This is a time for prudence because what we don't know can hurt us and can hurt patients."
Leslie and Frank Cutitta have a final request: Wear a mask.
"This disease is nothing to be trifled with," Leslie Cutitta said. "It's a devastating experience."
Frank Cutitta worries about all of the patients still suffering with COVID-19 and those who have survived but have lasting damage.
"I'm not considering myself one of those," he said, "but there are many, many people who would rather be dead than left with what they have after this."
This story is part of a partnership that includes WBUR, NPR and KHN.
However, those executive orders are far from being implemented, and multiple experts told us it’s unlikely the measures would pass along drug-pricing discounts to a majority of Americans.
This article was first published on Wednesday, August 26, 2020 in Kaiser Health News.
President Donald Trump has long considered lowering the high cost of prescription drugs to be one of his signature issues, and it is likely to be a talking point he relies on throughout the upcoming campaign.
During his afternoon speech Monday ― delivered on the first day of the Repubublican National Convention after delegates had unanimously renominated him to seek reelection ― he returned to this theme.
“Now, I’m really doing it,” he said, referring to a series of four executive orders he issued in July. These orders touched on a range of issues, including insulin prices and drug importation. He focused on two specifically.
“But the fact is that we signed a favored nations clause and a rebate clause, and your numbers are going to come down 60, 70%,” he said.
However, those executive orders are far from being implemented, and multiple experts told us it’s unlikely the measures would pass along drug-pricing discounts to a majority of Americans. And the text of one, the favored nation executive order, has not yet been made public ― making it hard to know how exactly the initiative would work.
“Details are a bit murky,” Matthew Fiedler, a health care fellow with the Brookings Institution, wrote in an email.
We checked in with the White House to find out more details about the favored nation order and when the text might be released. However, we did not get a response. Still, we decided to dig in.
What We Know
The favored nation executive order was supposed to match U.S. prices for a certain class of drugs with the lower amount paid in certain European countries, which negotiate drug prices. It reportedly would have applied only to drugs covered by Medicare Part B ― those that patients receive at their doctors’ offices, such as infused cancer drugs ― but not those purchased at the pharmacy counter. Drug companies criticized the executive order, and the Trump administration offered to consider an alternative plan if the firms offered it by Aug. 24. So far, the industry has not made a counter offer.
A spokesperson for PhRMA, the lobbying group that represents major drugmakers, said in a statement that “the most favored nation executive order is an irresponsible and unworkable policy that will give foreign politicians a say in how America provides access to treatments and cures for seniors and people struggling with devastating diseases.” The group did not confirm on the record whether an alternative drug-pricing plan had been discussed with the White House.
The Trump administration floated a similar idea in 2018, which met with swift criticism from some of its usual supporters, such as Americans for Tax Reform, a right-leaning advocacy group that opposes tax increases. The criticism was marked by TV ads warning that this approach to drug costs was a step toward socialism. We found that claim to be Mostly False. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services estimated at that time the resulting savings from such a plan would be 30%, but it was never enacted.
Multiple experts questioned Trump’s claims about how much costs would come down as a result of the more recent proposal.
That’s in part because the full text of the executive order has not been published, and so classifying the president’s statement as true “requires a leap of faith,” said Benedic Ippolito, a resident scholar who studies health care costs at the American Enterprise Institute.
Ippolito allowed that because some drug prices in other countries are far below those in the U.S., a reduction of 60% or 70% could be plausible for an individual product. But, in order for that to happen, the policy would have to be implemented.
Seeing this 60% to 70% decrease “relies on the idea that this policy ever happens. And I think there is reason to be very skeptical there,” Ippolito wrote in an email.
Rachel Sachs, an associate professor of law at Washington University in St. Louis, who has analyzed the drug-pricing executive orders, agreed there’s no solid foundation to support those percentages.
“I don’t know about the 60 or 70%,” she said. “I don’t know what he’s talking about.”
Another executive order attempted to address the rebates paid to pharmacy benefit managers within Medicare by directing that these payments instead be used as discounts for beneficiaries within the Part D program, the plans that pay for prescription medications.
However, experts pointed out that those discounts usually go toward lowering insurance premiums for seniors. Without applying the discount there, premiums would likely go up. And, in order to keep premiums down, the federal government would need to spend more on subsidies.
Analyses from the Congressional Budget Office and other groups predicted that Trump’s rebate proposal would lower drug prices for some seniors, but would also increase federal spending and increase seniors’ premiums.
There is also a stipulation in the text of the order, which says the order cannot be implemented if it leads to increased government spending or higher premiums for beneficiaries. Thus, it’s unclear how such a proposal would be implemented.
“The executive order on the rebate is internally contradictory, which makes you wonder how they can do this,” said Sachs.
Why It Matters
Trump is likely to continue saying he has reduced drug prices, not only during the Republican National Convention but for the remainder of the 2020 campaign.
Trump likes to present proposals in the works as having been implemented, and we’ve fact-checked him twice before on similar drug-pricing statements.
In May 2019, he claimed he brought down drug prices for the first time in 51 years, which we found to be Mostly False. And in early August of that year, we fact-checked a claim about another of his drug-pricing executive orders that inflated his efforts to reduce insulin prices, which we also found to be Mostly False.
This time, Trump referenced two different drug-pricing executive orders. While it is true that he signed both of them (though the text of only one is publicly available), experts have expressed skepticism about whether these proposals will be implemented, as well as whether they would lower drug prices significantly for Americans.
And this isn’t the first time Trump has made this promise to the American people.
“He promised to lower drug prices as part of his campaign in 2016 and has done absolutely nothing of substance about drug prices at all while he’s been in office,” Aaron Kesselheim, a professor of medicine at Harvard, wrote in an email.
Harbor-UCLA wants to recruit most, if not all, of the trial's 500 participants from among the high-risk patients it already treats.
This article was published on Wednesday, August 26, 2020 in Kaiser Health News.
By Arthur Allen The patients at Dr. Eric Daar's hospital are at high risk for serious illness from COVID-19, and he's determined to make sure they're part of the effort to fight the disease.
He also hopes they can protect themselves in the process.
When Daar and his colleagues at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center on Wednesday announce the start of enrollment for a trial to test a COVID-19 vaccine produced by AstraZeneca, they will also unveil the hospital's community-based recruitment strategy.
Harbor-UCLA wants to recruit most, if not all, of the trial's 500 participants from among the high-risk patients it already treats: people over 65, those with chronic illnesses and members of underserved racial and ethnic groups. Hospital officials also expect that the recruitment task will not be easy.
"It's a priority and obligation to make sure our community is well represented in these trials," said Daar, chief of HIV medicine at Harbor-UCLA and a researcher at the UCLA-affiliated Lundquist Institute, who dropped his other research projects last spring to focus on a COVID-19 vaccine.
The safety-net hospital in Torrance, California, serves patients in the South Bay area of Los Angeles County who are predominantly Black, Latino and Pacific Islander. Many live in crowded homes and do "essential" work that requires them to expose themselves to the virus to make a living: They're orderlies and cooks and house cleaners, day laborers and bus drivers and sanitation workers.
The area has high rates of heart disease and stroke.
"If you don't have a community represented in the trial, it's hard to extrapolate your results to the community," said Dr. Katya Corado, one of Daar's colleagues. "We want to find something to protect our patients and loved ones."
Latinos and Blacks in the United States are nearly three times more likely than non-Hispanic whites to be diagnosed with COVID-19 and nearly five times more likely to be hospitalized with the disease. In Los Angeles County, Latinos in particular have been disproportionately stricken by the virus.
Eight of 10 COVID-19 deaths nationwide occur among people 65 and older, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Historically, Blacks and Latinos have been less likely to be included in clinical trials for disease treatment, despite federal guidelines that urge minority and elder participation.
The National Institutes of Health and the Food and Drug Administration have urged infectious disease researchers to focus on these vulnerable populations in the large phase 3 trials that will test how well vaccines prevent COVID-19.
Harbor-UCLA, a public teaching hospital owned and operated by Los Angeles County, is one of roughly 100 sites nationwide testing the AstraZeneca vaccine candidate, which was developed in collaboration with Oxford University in Britain. Phase 3 trials of about the same size for vaccine candidates produced by Moderna and Pfizer are already underway. Each of the three companies seeks to recruit 30,000 people, 20,000 of whom will get the vaccine and 10,000 a placebo, or harmless saline solution, to test whether the vaccine prevents coronavirus disease.
Recruitment at Harbor-UCLA will include patients with well-controlled chronic diseases such as diabetes and hypertension, and people with HIV who've kept the virus under control with medication, Daar said.
According to the AstraZeneca trial protocol, patients will get up to $100 for each of 15 to 20 visits during the two-year trial. The Harbor-UCLA team will also offer car services to bring people to the hospital through L.A. traffic.
To reach its targeted recruits, the hospital will distribute leaflets to clinics and community organizations and create targeted social media campaigns, in addition to taking any free publicity it can get, Daar said.
Recruitment of high-risk patients in other COVID-19 trials so far has been mixed. Moderna, which began the first phase 3 trial of the experimental vaccines on July 27, announced Friday that 18% of its 13,000-plus enrollees so far were Black, Latino or Native American — a high percentage as clinical trials go, but only about one-third of the goal set by NIH officials.
Other AstraZeneca trial sites have also publicized their efforts to reach those most at risk from the virus. The University of Southern California's Keck School of Medicine placed one of its AstraZeneca recruitment sites in Vernon, south of downtown Los Angeles in an area with many factories and meatpacking plants, which have experienced high COVID-19 infection rates.
Clinicians suspect that the higher rates of disease and hospitalization in minority groups are due both to health conditions — such as undertreated diabetes and heart disease — and to higher exposure to the virus in workplaces and crowded housing. Environmental factors like polluted neighborhoods may also have an impact.
While there's little evidence that vaccines affect Blacks or Latinos differently than white people, the subject hasn't really been studied, said Dr. Akilah Jefferson Shah, an allergist/immunologist and bioethicist at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences. That's another reason for making sure these groups are well represented in trials, she said.
"We know now there are subgroup responses to drugs by sex, but no one figured it out until they started including women in these studies," Jefferson Shah said. "Race is not genetic. It's a social construct. But there are genetic variants more prevalent in certain populations. We won't know until we look."
Perhaps most important, diversity in the research will be needed to build trust and uptake of the vaccine, Corado said. In a May poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, just 25% of Blacks and 37% of Hispanics said they would definitely seek vaccination against the coronavirus, compared with 56% of whites.
In July, the Harbor-UCLA vaccine team began holding weekly Zoom meetings with about 25 activists and clergy members to learn what their communities were saying about the vaccine and get tips on how to design educational materials for the trial.
What they've heard suggests they'll have an uphill recruitment battle.
One member of the community council, HIV activist Dontá Morrison, noted that people frequently say on social media that the vaccine is designed to give them COVID-19 as part of a plot to get rid of Black voters. (None of the vaccines contains infectious COVID virus.)
"It may seem far-fetched, but those are the conversations because we have an administration that has not shown itself to be trustworthy," Morrison said.
He noted that the first challenge UCLA researchers face is to convince community leaders, particularly clergy members, of the vaccine's safety. Church leaders worry they'll be blamed for supporting the trial if the vaccine ends up making their congregants sick, he said.
If done right, the trial could build trust in medical science while helping minorities help themselves — and the rest of us — find a way out of the current mess, Morrison said.
Dr. Raphael Landovitz, another UCLA scientist working on the trial, agreed.
"We're hoping that people understand this is a chance — if we succeed — to take back some power and control in this situation that has made so many of us feel so powerless," he said.
As COVID-19 continues to spread, an increasing number of rural communities find themselves without their hospital or on the brink of losing already cash-strapped facilities.
This article was published on Wednesday, August 26, 2020 in Kaiser Health News.
After becoming ill with COVID-19, Antone was hospitalized only 65 miles away from his small Alabama town. He is the mayor of Georgiana — population 1,700.
"It hit our rural community so rabid," Antone said. The town's hospital closed last year. If hospitals in nearby communities don't have beds available, "you may have to go four or five hours away."
As COVID-19 continues to spread, an increasing number of rural communities find themselves without their hospital or on the brink of losing already cash-strapped facilities.
Eighteen rural hospitals closed last year and the first three months of 2020 were "really big months," said Mark Holmes, director of the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. Many of the losses are in Southern states like Florida and Texas. More than 170 rural hospitals have closed nationwide since 2005, according to data collected by the Sheps Center.
It's a dangerous scenario. "We know that a closure leads to higher mortality pretty quickly" among the populations served, said Holmes, who is also a professor at UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health. "That's pretty clear."
One 2019 study found that death rates in the surrounding communities increase nearly6% after a rural hospital closes — and that's when there's not a pandemic.
Add to that what is known about the coronavirus: People who are obese or live with diabetes, hypertension, asthma and other underlying health issues are more susceptible to COVID-19. Rural areas tend to have higher rates of these conditions. And rural residents are more likely to be older, sicker and poorer than those in urban areas. All this leaves rural communities particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus.
Congress approved billions in federal relief funds for healthcare providers. Initially, federal officials based what a hospital would get on its Medicare payments, butby late April they heeded criticismand carved out funds for rural hospitals and COVID-19 hot spots. Rural hospitals leapt at the chance to shore up already-negative budgets and prepare for the pandemic.
The funds "helped rural hospitals with the immediate storm," said Dr. Don Williamson, president of the Alabama Hospital Association. Nearly 80% of Alabama's rural hospitals began the year with negative balance sheets and about eight days' worth of cash on hand.
Before the pandemic hit this year, hundreds of rural hospitals "were just trying to keep their doors open," said Maggie Elehwany, vice president of government affairs with the National Rural Health Association. Then, an estimated 70% of their income stopped as patients avoided the emergency room, doctor's appointments and elective surgeries.
"It was devastating," Elehwany said.
Paul Taylor, chief executive of a 25-bed critical access hospital and outpatient clinics in northwestern Arkansas, accepted millions in grants and loan money Congress approved this spring, largely through the CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security) Act.
"For us, this was survival money and we spent it already," Taylor said. With those funds, Ozarks Community Hospital increased surge capacity, expanding from 25 beds to 50 beds, adding negative pressure rooms and buying six ventilators. Taylor also ramped up COVID-19 testing at his hospital and clinics, located near some meat-processing plants.
Throughout June and July, Ozarks tested 1,000 patients a day and reported a 20% positive rate. The rate dropped to 16.9% in late July. But patients continue to avoid routine care.
Taylor said revenue is still constrained and he does not know how he will pay back $8 million that he borrowed from Medicare. The program allowed hospitals to borrow against future payments from the federal government, but stipulated that repayment would begin within 120 days.
For Taylor, this seems impossible. Medicare makes up 40% of Ozarks' income. And he has to pay the loan back before he gets any more payments from Medicare. He's hoping to refinance the hospital's mortgage.
"If I get no relief and they take the money … we won't still be open," Taylor said. Ozarks provides 625 jobs and serves an area with a population of about 75,000.
There are 1,300 small critical access hospitals like Ozarks in rural America and, of those, 859 took advantage of the Medicare loans, sending about $3.1 billion into the local communities. But many rural communities have not yet experienced a surge in coronavirus cases — national leaders fear it will come as part of a new phase.
"There are pockets of rural America who say, 'We haven't seen a single COVID patient yet and we do not believe it's real,'" Taylor said. "They will get hit sooner or later."
Across the country, the loss of patients and increased spending required to fight and prepare for the coronavirus was "like a knife cutting into a hospital's blood supply," said Ge Bai, associate professor of health policy and management at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore.
Bai said the way the federal government reimbursed small rural hospitals through federal programs like Medicare before the pandemic was faulty and inefficient. "They are too weak to survive," she said.
In rural Texas about two hours from Dallas, Titus Regional Medical Center chief executive Terry Scoggin cut staff and furloughed workers even as his rural hospital faced down the pandemic. Titus Regional lost about $4 million last fiscal year and broke even each of the three years before that.
Scoggin said he did not cut from his clinical staff, though. Titus is now facing its second surge of the virus in the community. "The last seven days, we've been testing 30% positive," he said, including the case of his father, who contracted it at a nursing home and survived.
"It's personal and this is real," Scoggin said. "You know the people who are infected. You know the people who are passing away."
Of his roughly 700 employees, 48 have tested positive for the virus and one has died. They are short on testing kits, medication and supplies.
"Right now the staff is strained," Scoggin said. "I've been blown away by their selflessness and unbelievable spirit. We're resilient, we're nimble, and we will make it. We don't have a choice."
As some parts of America gingerly begin to open up after months of near-total lockdown, people have questions. Will it be safe to take a train? A plane? Visit the hair salon? An indoor restaurant?
There are many knowable parameters in the equation: your health; the prevalence of cases where you live; the safety precautions being taken anyplace you want to visit. But the final answer may depend on your individual risk tolerance for exposure to infectious disease.
Most Americans alive today have never before had to make that self-assessment.
In the past, deadly outbreaks of plague, flu and polio were regular occurrences. Up until the mid- to late 20th century there were mumps, measles and chickenpox to contend with.
In a world of effective antibiotics and antivirals and other treatments, deaths or even serious illnesses from infectious disease seem nearly incomprehensible. So our fear is enormous, and our risk tolerance for exposure is just about zero.
I hear too many people saying "I'm not going back to life until there's a vaccine" — as if that will immediately eliminate the risk. It won't. Even if one of the current vaccine candidates works, it could be quite a while before it's widely distributed. And to be approved by the Food and Drug Administration, it must protect only half of the people taking it from infection.
For the foreseeable future, we will be living in a world with some level of the coronavirus out there. So if we want to get out of our bunkers, we all need to take stock of our risk tolerance.
As a doctor, I worked in a New York City emergency room and in a remote coastal clinic in Kenya, and then I became a journalist covering disease. I've had to measure my risk tolerance for infection in different situations.
Once, collecting blood from an AIDs patient, I couldn't feel the artery through my glove. The glove came off.
Treating a patient with multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis, I pulled my surgical mask a little tighter, made sure the windows were open and — irrationally — tried to breathe in less.
Reporting from the animal market where the SARS outbreak is thought to have started, I told myself that I should be OK, since it was outdoors. But I stayed away from animals being slaughtered, didn't touch any surfaces and took off my shoes before entering my hotel room.
Note that these decisions do not mean ignoring the data and infectious disease specialists' recommendations, as some conservatives are doing as they push ahead to reopen schools, businesses, restaurants and sports events.
Actually it's kind of the opposite: Accepting risk doesn't mean throwing caution to the wind. It means taking all precautions and deciding you can live with the very reduced risk that remains.
With the coronavirus, the only way to possibly eliminate risk is essentially to move to a house in the countryside and live in your family bubble. And many Americans, particularly wealthy ones, have done just that. This personal response was extreme, but it felt rational to many people because our national response to the coronavirus was so scattershot, flat-footed and incompetent.
But isolation is wearing thin.
So as states and cities engineer sensible reopening policies, everyone is going to have to assess their risk tolerance and cautiously push their personal boundaries bit by bit.
Some, of course, never got to make this decision. Risk tolerance is about duty and conscience but very often it's also about how much you need a paycheck.
Doctors, nurses and others who work in healthcare had no choice but to dive in. These folks did not, as so many have claimed, go into the profession "knowing the risks." They came to work knowing that the risk of infectious diseases could be controlled with careful precautions. That's why they felt angry and betrayed when they were asked to fight the novel coronavirus without an adequate supply of protective gear or (in some places) training about the new pathogen. And, tragically, some died as a result.
Now many physicians I know in COVID-19 hot spots say they actually feel safest in the hospital, where procedures like masking and sanitizing are assiduously followed. (Hell hath no fury like a surgeon who witnesses a medical student touch a sterile surface with an unsterile hand.) In contrast, on the sidewalk, the coronavirus could be roaming free if people aren't wearing masks.
Which is why masking should be mandated and enforced. It's not just about your individual risk tolerance but about keeping everyone safe.
In addition to wearing masks and social distancing when not at home, we should avoid prolonged periods in indoor spaces with crowds or strangers; wash or sanitize our hands — a lot — and try not to touch "high-touch" surfaces that hundreds of people have grabbed before. (Note to my local post office: You should have some kind of automatic door rather than require everyone to pull the handle!)
And we have to demand that anywhere we go — bookstores, medical offices, trains or hair salons — requires that patrons follow these guidelines. I, for one, won't enter if they don't.
I do not blame teachers for being unwilling to return to school in places where administrators and officials have been in denial about COVID-19 or have been unwilling or unable to do this preparatory work. But once schools have put in place appropriate science-based steps, most teachers (those not in high-risk groups) should return to their jobs.
COVID-19 is a very serious disease. But it is not the Black Death, which killed up to half of Europe in the 14th century. A vaccine, when and if it arrives, will be a big help. But in the meantime, we have science. We know what causes COVID-19. We are learning more about how to detect, prevent and treat it every day.
So instead of taking your temperature and checking your pulse oximeter reading twice a day, it may be time to take stock of your risk tolerance. In those places where governments, businesses and administrators have set the stage properly, we can — with sensible precautions — begin to live again.
In a business driven by profit, vaccines have a problem. They're not very profitable — at least not without government subsidies. Pharma companies favor expensive medicines that must be taken repeatedly and generate revenue for years or decades. Vaccines are often given only once or twice. In many parts of the world, established vaccines cost a few dollars per dose or less.
Last year only four companies were making vaccines for the U.S. market, down from more than 20 in the 1970s. As recently as Feb. 11, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government's top infectious disease expert, complained that no major drug company had committed to "step up" to make a coronavirus vaccine, calling the situation "very difficult and frustrating."
Oxford University surprised and pleased advocates of overhauling the vaccine business in April by promising to donate the rights to its promising coronavirus vaccine to any drugmaker.
The idea was to provide medicines preventing or treating COVID-19 at a low cost or free of charge, the British university said. That made sense to people seeking change. The coronavirus was raging. Many agreed that traditional vaccine development, characterized by long lead times, manufacturing monopolies and weak investment, was broken.
"We actually thought they were going to do that," James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International, a nonprofit that works to expand access to medical technology, said of Oxford's pledge. "Why wouldn't people agree to let everyone have access to the best vaccines possible?"
A few weeks later, Oxford—urged on by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation—reversed course. It signed an exclusive vaccine deal with AstraZeneca that gave the pharmaceutical giant sole rights and no guarantee of low prices—with the less-publicized potential for Oxford to eventually make millions from the deal and win plenty of prestige.
Other companies working on coronavirus vaccines have followed the same line, collecting billions in government grants, hoarding patents, revealing as little as possible about their deals—and planning to charge up to $37 a dose for potentially hundreds of millions of shots.
Even as governments shower money on an industry that has not made vaccines a priority in the past, critics say, failure to alter the basic model means drug industry executives and their shareholders will get rich with no assurance that future vaccines will be inexpensively available to all.
"If there were ever an opportunity" to change the economics of vaccine development, "this would have been it," said Ameet Sarpatwari, an epidemiologist and lawyer at Harvard Medical School who studies drug-pricing regulation. Instead, "it is business as usual, where the manufacturers are getting exclusive rights and we are hoping on the basis of public sentiment that they will price their products responsibly."
In the United States and other developed nations, the solution to drug-company reluctance was to shower them with billions of dollars in public funds to persuade them to help. The Trump administration has announced deals worth more than $10 billion with seven companies to try to turn basic research—often funded by the government—into effective, widely distributed vaccines—but with no guarantee they would be widely affordable or available.
That approach has driven up stock prices in the past four months and enriched drug executives betting with somebody else's money.
AstraZeneca stock and options owned by CEO Pascal Soriot have increased by nearly $15 million in value since early April, according to calculations by KHN based on company disclosures. The stock hit an all-time high in July. The stock market value of Novavax, a biotech that never recorded a profit in more than two decades, soared tenfold to $10 billion after a nonprofit and the Trump administration agreed to give it $1.6 billion to make a vaccine.
Companies "say we have to charge high prices because we are taking a risk," said Mohga Kamal-Yanni, an independent consultant on global health based in the United Kingdom. "Actually, the public is taking the risk. The public is paying for the cost of research and development and probably the cost of manufacturing as well."
Moderna, another company working on a vaccine candidate, received nearly $1 billion from the U.S. government to pay essentially all costs to research the product and get it approved by regulators. It's using a vaccine designed in large part by the National Institutes of Health and academic scientists using federal grants.
If the vaccine works, the company gets an additional $1.5 billion to cover 100 million doses, a deal that U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, a Texas Democrat, likened to giving taxpayers "the privilege of purchasing that same vaccine that we already paid for."
That deal comes to $15 a dose. Moderna told Wall Street analysts it might charge as much as $37 a dose for smaller-volume contracts.
"This is greedy, and the taxpayers who have funded all of this should have expected better negotiation on the part of the U.S. government," said Margaret Liu, a globally respected vaccine scientist who once worked for Merck and is now chairperson of the International Society for Vaccines.
The U.S. Health and Human Services Department "conducted extensive market research and price analysis" to ensure prices are fair, said a senior HHS official who asked for anonymity. "We are prohibited from disclosing price discussions and details."
Even if Moderna distributed a successful vaccine at a loss to make it widely available, it would reap enormous benefits because government support would have helped validate its technology for future products, Liu said. Moderna did not respond to requests for comment.
Nonprofits such as Oxfam and Doctors Without Borders have been pressuring drug companies to change for years. Exclusive patents and high prices that sometimes make lifesaving medicines unaffordable in rich countries often render them completely unavailable in the poor world, they argue.
One workaround has been enormous private and government subsidies, including from the U.K., the United States and the Gates Foundation, to promote developing-nation vaccines through the Geneva nonprofit Gavi, formerly known as the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization.
The Gates Foundation helped launch another non-governmental organization, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, in 2017. CEPI was created to fight something exactly like the coronavirus: potential infectious threats ignored or slighted by pharmaceutical companies.
CEPI's early principles of "equitable access" drew praise from reformers. The group asked for public data disclosure from drug-company grantees, "transparent" accounting to show true vaccine cost and the right to step in and take over a vaccine project if the developer failed to deliver.
The pharma industry immediately objected. Even though they were bankrolled by public money, drug companies were "concerned about the precedent that could be set if they allowed an outside entity, in this case CEPI, to set [the] price of a product unilaterally," CEPI reported in February. The nonprofit backed down, removing most references to prices in a new policy that Doctors Without Borders called "an alarming step backwards."
The original policy was intended to be "interim," and CEPI's "commitment to equitable access as a principle is the same," said spokesperson Rachel Grant.
Some thought the worst infectious disease crisis in a century, along with the enormous public investments, would change industry behavior.
Governments could have demanded transparency and low prices. They could have offered developers cash prizes for vaccines that would have incentivized science but let the public retain the marketing rights, said Love, of Knowledge Ecology International.
Agreement by researchers to publish the virus genome in January set the stage for global scientific cooperation, many believed.
"The full sequence was shared with the world without any strings attached," said Manuel Martin, a U.K.-based adviser to Doctors Without Borders on access to medical innovations.
"I personally don't believe that in a time of pandemic there should be exclusive licenses," Adrian Hill, director of Oxford's Jenner Institute, which is developing the vaccine, told The New York Times in April.
Instead, little has changed. No vaccine maker has offered open licenses, although NIH is sharing key technology it developed with multiple vaccine companies. Governments are signing lucrative deals with manufacturers to ensure vaccines for their own populations. WHO has made no announcements about contributions to its COVID-19 shared technology pool since it launched in May, patent experts said. WHO officials did not respond to a reporter's queries.
After Oxford announced the exclusive AstraZeneca deal, the company said it would sell vaccines at no profit—but only during the pandemic. Johnson & Johnson's pledge to earn no vaccine profit is similarly limited.
With financial information kept confidential, no one will be able to confirm whether the vaccines are truly being sold at cost. And if vaccine immunity is only temporary and endemic coronavirus strains require regular shots for years, the companies will make plenty of money down the road, critics say.
Under its deal with AstraZeneca, Oxford will receive no royalties during the pandemic but could make millions after it ends through a web of patents including those held by Vaccitech, a for-profit spinoff. Vaccitech's ownership includes a 50% stake held directly or indirectly by Oxford and 5.25% each owned by Hill and Jenner's other top vaccine scientist, Sarah Gilbert, U.K. regulatory filings show.
Pharma company officials say that only decades of industry research could have made it even possible to produce a coronavirus vaccine at the present speed.
"The federal government cannot research, develop and manufacture vaccines and other new treatments on its own," said Andrew Powaleny, a spokesperson for the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, a lobbying group. Large and early government investment "is a well-accepted approach to addressing public health crises," he said.
Many argue that a health crisis is not the time to worry about overpaying for vaccines or backing some candidates that won't deliver. Getting a good vaccine as quickly as possible requires spreading bets, they say.
"Spending some extra billions on vaccines is the right choice when human life is at stake and trillions in economic loss is at risk," said Edward Scolnick, a top scientist at the Broad Institute and former head of research for Merck. He owns no stock in Merck or other pharma companies, he said.
Oxford backed off from its open-license pledge after the Gates Foundation urged it to find a big-company partner to get its vaccine to market.
"We went to Oxford and said, Hey, you're doing brilliant work," Bill Gates told reporters on June 3, a transcript shows. "But … you really need to team up." The comments were first reported by Bloomberg.
AstraZeneca, one of the U.K.'s two major pharma companies, may have demanded an exclusive license in return for doing a deal, said Ken Shadlen, a professor at the London School of Economics and an authority on pharma patents—a theory supported by comments from CEO Soriot.
"I think IP [intellectual property, or exclusive patents] is a fundamental part of our industry and if you don't protect IP, then essentially there is no incentive for anybody to innovate," Soriot told the newspaper The Telegraph in May.
Some see the Gates Foundation, a heavy funder of Gavi, CEPI and many other vaccine projects, as supporting traditional patent rights for pharma companies.
"[Bill] Gates has staked out this outsized role in the vaccine world," Love said. "He has an ideological belief that the intellectual property system is a wonderful mechanism that is necessary for innovation and prosperity."
The Gates Foundation requires all its grantees to commit to making products "widely available at an affordable price," a spokesperson said.
Oxford officials, including Hill and Gilbert, did not respond to requests for comment. AstraZeneca, for its part, would set a "reasonable" post-pandemic price and is "committed to ensure equitable access, globally" in the meantime, a spokesperson said. The company has signed deals with CEPI, Gavi and the Serum Institute of India to bring more than a billion doses to low- and middle-income countries, he said.
If nothing else, governments and vaccine makers should be open about their relationships, including making contracts public, said Duncan Matthews, a patent law professor at the Queen Mary University of London.
"We simply don't know what's in these deals," he said. "The biopharma industry is applying old rules of commercial confidentiality in a situation that is unprecedented."
Two manufacturers that have received FDA authorization say their antigen tests are intended for patients with symptoms, calling into question how valuable the tests would be for broad screenings.
This article was published on Monday, August 24, 2020 in Kaiser Health News.
The Trump administration's latest effort to use COVID-19 rapid tests — touted by one senior official as a "turning point" in arresting the coronavirus's spread within nursing homes — is running into roadblocks likely to limit how widely they'll be used.
Federal officials are distributing point-of-care antigen tests — which are cheaper and faster than tests that must be run by a lab — to 14,000 nursing homes to increase routine screening of residents and staff. The initial distribution targets nursing homes in hot spots and those with at least three COVID-19 cases, senior Trump administration officials said in July, hailing it as a tool that could root out asymptomatic carriers who might still infect others.
But there's a hitch: Two manufacturers that have received Food and Drug Administration authorization and whose instruments are being delivered — Becton, Dickinson and Co., known as BD, and Quidel — say their antigen tests are intended for patients with symptoms, calling into question how valuable the tests would be for broad screening purposes. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates40% of infected people may be asymptomatic.
"It's important always to use a diagnostic in the way that it has been designed to be used," said Elizabeth Talbot, New Hampshire's deputy state epidemiologist. "We simply don't know how [the tests] will perform in persons who are asymptomatic."
Perhaps the highest-profile example of the problem occurred in Ohio this month, when Gov. Mike DeWine had no symptoms and tested positive for COVID-19 with Quidel's antigen test. Within hours, the Republican governor's diagnosis was reversed after he got a PCR test.
"People should not take away from my experience that testing is not reliable or doesn't work," DeWine said on CNN after his false-positive diagnosis. "The antigen tests are fairly new," he said. "We're going to be very careful in how we use it."
The bigger problem is false-negative results, which show someone isn't infected when they actually are. BD's false-negative rate — how often a test incorrectly says someone isn't infected — is about 15%; Quidel's is 3%.
Quidel and BD say their tests are intended to be used for people within the first five days of showing symptoms. A spokesperson for BD said its test should not be used on asymptomatic individuals. Quidel through a spokesperson deferred to FDA guidelines, which allow asymptomatic testing in certain scenarios.
"For routine surveillance, this is a great tool and these are our best tools that we have available," said Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at the Department of Health and Human Services, on a July call with nursing home officials, according to a recording obtained by KHN. Seema Verma, the administrator of the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, on the call referred to the effort as a "turning point" in the fight against the virus.
A month after the initial announcement, the Trump administration invoked the Defense Production Act to bump its contracts with the two companies to the front of the line and expedite shipments. BD will send roughly 11,000 devices and 3.75 million tests to nursing homes; Quidel and HHS declined to answer questions about its volume.
As states and the federal government move to mandate COVID testing inside nursing homes, whose patients are deemed highly vulnerable to infection and severe complications, several industry officials have said they hoped to use the tests on asymptomatic people. But many states restrict the use of antigen tests or still require lab-based testing because of accuracy concerns.
If a person with a negative test result has to default to getting a more accurate PCR test, "then we simply have just added time and cost," Talbot said. "That's a problem."
Officials said the antigen test announcement caught them by surprise, underscoring the administration's chaotic testing strategy. Separate from the federal effort, 10 states have banded together through the Rockefeller Foundation to secure 5 million tests from the two companies in hopes of curbing the virus's spread this fall.
After nursing homes receive an initial batch of tests — each facility gets between 150 and 900 — they would have to buy future supplies. Medicare will cover the costs of diagnostic tests but not expenses for routine surveillance.
"I just have a lot of skepticism," said Brendan Williams, president of the New Hampshire Healthcare Association, which represents nursing homes and assisted living facilities in the state. "Basically you're giving some lousy tests for nursing homes and you're making them pay for them. I don't see that as a win; I see that as a risk."
Public health experts have become increasingly vocal that frequent rapid testing is the best tool for stopping the virus — which has killed more than 174,000 Americans including tens of thousands in nursing care — rather than relying on more accurate lab-based tests that have been plagued by delays and shortages. In a call this month with the industry, Verma estimated that half of the country's nursing homes have experienced cases.
"I don't see an avenue where these will not help to stop transmission chains, and I don't see another option on the table for us," said Dr. Michael Mina, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and a proponent of rapid tests. "It is what we need to be doing right now."
"This is better for the folks in our buildings, without a doubt," added Jason Belden, director of emergency preparedness and physical plant services for the California Association of Health Facilities.
In theory, antigen tests can serve dual purposes — diagnosing a person with a suspected infection or screening a group of people to more quickly identify sick individuals. The tests by Quidel and BD, under their FDA authorizations, can be used on certain asymptomatic individuals, including those suspected of having COVID-19 after exposure to an infected person. The companies would need additional FDA authorization to screen any asymptomatic person regardless of whether they're suspected of being sick, according to agency guidelines.
The CDC has suggested antigen tests could be useful in high-risk settings if performed repeatedly. It said there was limited data to guide using them to screen asymptomatic people.
Nonetheless, HHS recommends universal screening of nursing home residents at least once and regular screening of staff regardless of symptoms, said agency spokesperson Mia Heck, citing the fact that COVID-19 viral loads are similar between patients with and without symptoms. "Only one test in the U.S. is authorized for asymptomatic individuals," she said, referring to a PCR test from LabCorp, "yet the overwhelming majority of testing is being done on asymptomatic individuals."
"If the world were ideal we'd say, 'Oh, we want the more accurate test.' But the more accurate test takes forever to get the results back," said Peter Van Runkle, executive director of the Ohio Healthcare Association, which represents the state's nursing homes.
All targeted nursing homes will receive tests by the end of September, according to federal officials, who recently announced that facilities in states with a positivity rate of at least 5% must test staff each week.
"I don't see this as a federal strategy so much as a stopgap method to bring a little relief to nursing homes," said Katie Smith Sloan, president of LeadingAge, which represents nonprofit nursing homes. "It's really tragic that we are where we are right now."
Boosted by $71 million in federal funds for Quidel and $24.3 million for BD, Quidel plans to produce 1.8 million tests weekly by September; BD will produce similar volumes by October.
"The situation is much too urgent to wait a few months so we can put bows and lipstick on the program. So we're going to build this plane a little bit while we're flying it," Giroir told nursing homes in July. "Just work with us. We want to get you what you need. And then in September, October you can get what you want."
States take different approaches in deploying antigen tests in nursing homes; in at least seven — including California, Illinois and Maryland — officials say PCR tests should still be used to confirm results or to screen patients without symptoms. In Massachusetts, nursing homes must use PCR tests to meet surveillance requirements.
In Maryland, "our goal is to screen out staff who are positive as quickly as possible, particularly asymptomatic folks," said Dennis Schrader, chief operating officer of the health department.
Maryland nursing homes can use antigen tests for weekly staff testing if there isn't an outbreak. But if at least one person tests positive for the coronavirus, all staff and residents must be tested with PCR tests.