New study raises the possibility that some women who believe their lives were saved by mammograms were actually harmed by cancer screenings that led to treatment they didn't need, says Dr. Otis Brawley, chief medical officer of the American Cancer Society.
One in three women with breast cancer detected by a mammogram is treated unnecessarily, because screening tests found tumors that are so slow-growing that they're essentially harmless, according to a Danish study published Monday in Annals of Internal Medicine, which has renewed debate over the value of early detection.
The study raises the uncomfortable possibility that some women who believe their lives were saved by mammograms were actually harmed by cancer screenings that led to surgery, radiation and even chemotherapy that they didn't need, said Dr. Otis Brawley, chief medical officer of the American Cancer Society, who wrote an accompanying editorial but was not involved in the study.
Researchers increasingly recognize that not all breast cancers pose the same risk, even if they look the same under a microscope, Brawley said. While some early tumors turn into deadly monsters, others stop growing or even shrink. But assuming that all small breast lesions have the potential to turn deadly is akin to "racial profiling," Brawley wrote in his editorial.
"By treating all the cancers that we see, we are clearly saving some lives" Brawley said in an interview. "But we're also 'curing' some women who don't need to be cured."
Although experts such as Brawley have long discussed the risks posed by "overdiagnosis," relatively few women who undergo cancer screenings are even aware of the debate.
The American College of Radiology, which strongly supports breast cancer screenings, acknowledges that mammograms lead some women to be treated unnecessarily, but said the problem is much less common than the new study suggests. Another study from Denmark – whose national health program keeps detailed records – estimated the overdiagnosis rates at only 2.3 percent.
"The amount of overdiagnosis really is small," said Dr. Debra Monticciolo, chair of the American College of Radiology's Commission on Breast Imaging. "Articles like this aren't very helpful," she said, because they leave women confused about how to be screened for breast cancer.
Yet treating women for cancer unnecessarily can endanger their health, said Fran Visco, president of the National Breast Cancer Coalition, an advocacy group. Radiation can damage the heart or even cause new cancers. Visco notes that breast cancer activist Carolina Hinestrosa, a vice president at the coalition, died at age 50 from soft-tissue sarcoma, a tumor caused by radiation used to treat an early breast cancer.
Women should understand these risks, Visco said. Instead, women often hear only about mammograms' benefits.
"Women have been inundated with the early detection message for decades," Visco said.
The risks of overdiagnosis and false positives, which can lead women with benign growths to undergo biopsies and other follow-up tests, have caused some experts to reevaluate breast cancer screenings. Although mammograms don't find all tumors, they reduce the risk of dying from breast cancer by 25 percent to 31 percent for women ages 40 to 69, according to the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, part of the Department of Health and Human Services.
Medical groups now offer differing advice on mammograms:
The American College of Radiology takes the most aggressive stance, recommending annual mammograms beginning at age 40. Tumors should be found when they're "smaller and easier to treat," Monticciolo said.
The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, an independent expert panel that advises the federal government on health, provoked a firestorm of criticism in 2009 when it bucked that advice, recommending that women get mammograms every other year beginning at age 50. The group noted that breast cancer risk rises with age, so mammograms are more likely to discover cancer – as opposed to benign growths – after age 50.
The American Cancer Society also scaled back its screening advice in 2015, recommending women get annual mammograms from 45 to 54, followed by screenings every other year after that.
In the new study, Danish researchers estimated the rate of overdiagnosis by comparing the number of early-stage and advanced breast tumors before and after the country started offering mammograms. If screenings work as intended, the number of small, curable breast tumors should increase, while reducing the number of large cancers by about the same amount.
Although mammograms in Denmark detected a lot more breast cancers, these were mostly small, early-stage tumors, said study coauthor Dr. Karsten Jorgensen, a researcher at the Nordic Cochrane Center in Copenhagen, Denmark. The number of advanced cancers did not fall.
The debate about overdiagnosis illustrates the limits of medical technology, Brawley said.
Although researchers can estimate the statistical rate of overdiagnosis, doctors treating actual patients can't definitively tell which breast tumors need treatment and which might be safely ignored, Brawley said. So doctors tend to err on the side of caution and treat all breast cancers with surgery and, in many cases, radiation and chemotherapy.
An estimated 253,000 new cases of breast cancer will be diagnosed in U.S. women this year, with nearly 41,000 deaths, according to the American Cancer Society.
An additional 63,000 women will be diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ, also known as DCIS, which has some, but not all, of the typical traits of cancer. Although DCIS cells have changed to appear malignant under the microscope, they haven't invaded surrounding tissue.
The American Cancer Society defines DCIS as the earliest stage of breast cancer, and women with the condition typically undergo the same treatment given to women with early invasive cancers. Although DCIS isn't life-threatening, doctors recommend treating it to prevent it from becoming invasive.
Other experts note that DCIS carries such low risk that it should be considered merely a risk factor for cancer. Researchers are conducting studies to measure whether it's safe to scale back treatment of DCIS.
Over the past decade, Tom Price has waded into issues related to specific drugs and medical devices, making 38 inquiries with the federal Food and Drug Administration, according to federal records.
Rep. Tom Price, the physician and Georgia Republican tapped for the nation's leading health care job, has long criticized federal spending as excessive. Yet during his years in Congress, he's worked hard to keep federal dollars flowing to his most generous campaign donors.
Price has been a go-to congressman, a review of his records show, for medical special interests hotly sparring with regulators or facing budget cuts. Over the past decade, he has waded into issues related to specific drugs and medical devices, making 38 inquiries with the federal Food and Drug Administration, according to federal records obtained through the Freedom of Information Act. He questioned the FDA on his constituents' behalf about matters as minute as a device for fertility treatment and an ingredient in pain creams.
In other cases, he has gone to bat for companies whose executives and employees have generously contributed to his campaigns and political action committees.
"It looks like he's somebody who could throw the store open to a lot of niche special interests," said Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University who specializes in Congress. "These are things that fly under the radar. If you take a meat ax to Medicare, for example, everybody would know about it. But this kind of stuff is done in the dark of night."
Just a few weeks before Trump tapped Price to lead the Department of Health & Human Services in November, the congressman took the stage at an Atlanta conference for vendors who sell canes, hospital beds and power wheelchairs. Price was the star of the show — a conference with 5,000 attendees. He spoke to the gathered crowd about the Medicare cuts plaguing the industry and pledged to fight them. The leaders of the Medtrade conference honored Price with an award for his stalwart advocacy and convened a $100-per-person fundraiser in his honor.
Price, 62, a tea party Republican and orthopedic surgeon from the northern Atlanta suburbs, was elected to Congress in 2004 after four terms in the Georgia state Legislature. A third-generation physician, he has said he entered politics on a quest to limit government meddling in health care. He has won significant campaign support over the years from drug firms and physician groups.
Records obtained through a public records request show that Price has taken an interest in his constituents' struggles with the FDA. He hand-signed a letter of concern over the availability of heart valves used in pediatric surgeries in 2005. Four years later, he urged review of a local company's sperm-analysis device. He dubbed the company a "pillar of the community" and said it should be exempted from a clinical trial that would be "impossible to pass." Earlier this year, his staffer pressed the FDA on behalf of a constituent trying to getcapsaicin palmitate, a hot-pepper ingredient similar to one available over the counter — on a list of approved products for specialized pain creams.
A staunch opponent to President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, which he says destroys "the sacred doctor-patient relationship," Price has offered several plans, including the Empowering Patients First Act, to repeal and replace the president's health reforms. He favors instead offering patients health savings accounts which they may tap to pay for coverage and care, and tax credits to help people buy health insurance on their own.
Price's office did not respond to interview requests or to detailed written questions about his relationships with contributors or his legislative record. His confirmation hearing could come before President-elect Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said Price is among the top targets for Democrats — and whose nomination they are trying to derail. The Office of Government Ethics will review Price's financial disclosure report, which contains information about his assets, income and other personal financial information and then advise the Senate Finance Committee on whether Price needs to take steps to avoid conflicts of interest.
In recent weeks, Price has come under criticism for his stock trading in drug companies, including an Australian firm that plans to seek U.S. approval for a promising drug.
Phil Blando, a Trump transition spokesman, said Price has complied with the law and ethics rules. Blando said that Price "takes his obligation to uphold the public trust very seriously" and, if confirmed by the Senate, will work with ethics officials to "ensure his continued compliance and transparency."
Champion of Medical Equipment
When thousands gathered at the Medtrade meeting to learn about the latest home medical equipment in the fall, Price pledged to help them.
The industry has battled widespread changes in government payment mandated by Congress in 2003 and implemented by the Obama administration. The reforms came after a decade of Justice Department prosecutions that targeted fraudsters who bought wheelchairs at wholesale prices, allegedly gave them to seniors who didn't need or want them and billed Medicare at a premium.
The most recent reforms have included budget cuts and a competitive bidding program meant to limit medical supply profitability, including the wheelchairs. Providers of home medical equipment have ranked as key Price backers, contributing $52,600 to his campaign since 2013, according to a Kaiser Health News analysis of federal contributions.
Despite his longtime stance as a budget hawk, Price has sided with industry leaders who say the cuts harm rural medical suppliers who face higher costs delivering equipment. Price said in a press release that the cuts jeopardize seniors' access to life-saving medical equipment, including scooters and oxygen tanks. "Georgia's seniors ought to have access to quality health care," Price said in a statement in May.
Price introduced a bill that month to delay cuts in Medicare spending for durable medical equipment, like hospital beds and motorized wheelchairs. The bill passed the House in July but died in the Senate.
Medical equipment industry leaders credit Price with helping reverse or delay some cuts through the recently signed 21st Century Cures Act, according to the blog of the Iowa-based VGM Group, which describes itself as "the nation's premier purchasing organization" and a "silent partner" to thousands of independent providers of home medical equipment. The company and its executives have contributed more than $17,000 to Price. One leader aired his gratitude to the congressman in another blog post calling the delay of the cuts a "red letter day" for durable medical equipment suppliers.
Price has also helped protect companies that provide home health aides and nursing care to homebound seniors — a lucrative industry that prosecutors have identified as prone to fraud. Alarmed by a Medicare plan to review such claims prior to payment, industry leaders turned to Price and another congressman for help, according to the Partnership for Quality Home Healthcare, which lauded both men for listening to their concerns.
Home health companies also contributed more than $24,000 to Price from 2013 to earlier this year.
Criticizing the cost-saving plan as overly broad and impeding patients' access to care, in September, Price introduced a billthat would delay the claim-review project a year. The bill, cosponsored by Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), stalled in a subcommittee in October.
Support for Traveling Doctors
In Congress, Price has been a vocal critic of America's medical malpractice system — a bugaboo for many surgeons but also for a company based in his district that has provided reliable campaign donations. That firm, Jackson Healthcare, staffs hospitals and practices with temporary doctors, called locum tenens.
One of Price's largest PAC contributors is Richard L. Jackson, the company's chairman and CEO. The two spoke together in 2009 at a forum aimed at limiting malpractice lawsuits. Both men have asserted doctors' attempts to avoid such lawsuits have led to costly and excessive medical care. In a 2010 interview, Jackson mentioned that he had discussed "defensive medicine" with Price, and other Congress members. Price, for his part, has referenced Jackson Healthcare's study on the high cost of such health care.
The malpractice issue has had particular relevance to the locum tenens industry and to Jackson's company in particular. It has faced multiple lawsuits over the alleged misdeeds of temporary doctors, including care of patients in Veterans Affairs and Indian Health Service hospitals.
Price has repeatedly introduced legislation to curtail malpractice cases and, on another front, to protect the tax status of traveling doctor companies. In September he introduced the House version of a bill that would help change the IRS code to classify travelling doctors as contractors, not employees, so that the company providing them wouldn't be legally vulnerable for taxes in distant states. A Senate version was introduced earlier by Georgia Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson. The bills died in committee last year.
Jackson and his son, Shane, the company's president, have supported Price with donations to his campaign and joint fundraising committee, which contributes to Republican campaigns. Since 2011, Jackson and his son, have contributed at least $43,000 to Price's campaign or a joint fundraising committee with $35,000 arriving last January.
A spokeswoman for Jackson said Price's bill would not have affected his company since, in practice, it already regarded its doctors as contractors, as did the government.
But Sean Ebner, president of another major traveling doctor company, said the measure would have eliminated the possibility of a surprise tax bill.
"The designation of who's an independent contractor can change state by state," Ebner, who heads Staff Care, said in an interview. "[The bill] removes ambiguity, which would be positive."
Influence with the FDA
If confirmed as HHS secretary, Price would oversee many of the rules and regulations and bottlenecks that regularly draw howls from the medical industry. He would also have authority over the FDA, which regulates pharmaceuticals. The agency may soon have purview over a company that Price has personally invested in.
The Australian firm Innate Immunotherapeutics reported in an annual report that it plans to bring its key Multiple Sclerosis drug to the FDA for approval. Several months ago, Price purchased between $50,000 and $100,000 worth of stock in the company, according to a routine financial disclosure required of Congress members.
The FDA is also currently mulling another regulatory issue that could make or break the company of a top contributor. Parker H. "Pete" Petit, along with his family has contributed $35,900 to Price's campaign and leadership PAC since 2010. Petit also was finance chair for Trump in Georgia and, with his family, contributed $125,000 to the president-elect's PAC.
Petit is the CEO of MiMedx, a Georgia biotech firm in Price's district, which has contested a decision from the FDA on some products to aid wound healing.
In August 2013, the FDA concluded in a letter that the products, which consist of discarded placentas and amniotic fluid, should be regulated since their manufacturing constituted manipulating human tissue. The FDA letter sent MiMedx stock tumbling and spurred a securities lawsuit filed in federal court in Georgia. The case accused MiMedx of misleading investors by downplaying the gravity of the FDA's scrutiny. A nearly $3 million settlement was reached in April.
Petit has acknowledged seeking congressional help on the issue, without being specific. The FDA said it couldn't comment on the matter. MiMedx did not return calls.
The Republican strategy of repealing the Affordable Health Care Act before devising a replacement plan has the support of only one in five Americans, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey.
The Republican strategy of repealing the Affordable Health Care Act before devising a replacement plan has the support of only one in five Americans, a poll released Friday finds.
The Kaiser Family Foundation survey also disclosed that shrinking the federal government's involvement and spending in health care — the long-sought goal of House Speaker Paul Ryan and other Republican lawmakers — is less important to most Americans than is ensuring medical care is affordable and available. (Kaiser Health News is an editorially independent project of the foundation.)
Views split not only on partisan lines but also within the Republican Party, where nearly four in 10 think that the government should guarantee health care is available to the elderly and to low-income people, even if it means more federal involvement.
Despite the rout of Democrats in the election, which gave the GOP control of both the White House and Congress, the public's view on the Affordable Care Act remains as divided as it has been since it was passed by President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats in 2010. Currently, 47 percent of the public wants to keep the law, which upended the way insurers do business and expanded coverage to 20 million Americans.
Opponents have not coalesced behind the GOP's two-stage plan of repealing the law immediately and then constructing a replacement. More people (28 percent) want a replacement plan announced before repealing the existing law than the share that says the law needs to be disassembled now (20 percent).
The survey found there are opportunities on both sides of the debate to influence public opinion. Twenty-two percent of those who said they want the law to remain switched their views when told that some consumers have seen large increases in cost. The same portion changed sides after being told the country cannot afford the expense of helping people buy health insurance.
Those opposed to the law are also willing to reconsider their views. More than a third of those said they would not want the law repealed after being told that some people with preexisting health problems would no longer be able to get insurance. A quarter reversed their opinion after being told some people who got insurance because of the law would lose it if the law were repealed. President-elect Donald Trump has said he wants people with preexisting conditions protected after the law is repealed.
Democratic fears that repeal of the Affordable Care Act will damage health care are not shared by most Americans. Six in 10 people believe the quality of their care will stay the same, and only two in 10 think their care will worsen. Families where someone has a serious medical condition are more worried, but even among them, only a third anticipate the cost of their health care will suffer if the law is repealed.
The poll found that the public's most widely shared health goal is reducing the cost of care, with 67 percent of respondents calling it a top priority. Lowering the cost of prescription drugs is a top priority for 61 percent of the public, followed by addressing prescription pain killer addictions, with 45 percent listing it. Abolishing the Affordable Care Act is a top priority for 37 percent of the public, primarily among Republicans.
The poll was conducted from Dec. 13 through 19 among 1,204 adults. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points for the full sample.
Medicare potentially overpaid five of health plans $128 million in 2007 alone, according to confidential government documents released recently in response to a public records request and lawsuit. But officials never recovered most of that money.
Six years ago, federal health officials were confident they could save taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars annually by auditing private Medicare Advantage insurance plans that allegedly overcharged the government for medical services.
An initial round of audits found that Medicare had potentially overpaid five of the health plans $128 million in 2007 alone, according to confidential government documents released recently in response to a public records request and lawsuit.
But officials never recovered most of that money. Under intense pressure from the health insurance industry, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services quietly backed off their repayment demands and settled the audits in 2012 for just under $3.4 million — shortchanging taxpayers by up to $125 million in possible overcharges just for 2007.
Medicare Advantage is a popular alternative to traditional Medicare. The privately run health plans have enrolled more than 17 million elderly and disabled people — about a third of those eligible for Medicare — at a cost to taxpayers of more than $150 billion a year. And while the plans generally enjoy strong support in Congress, there are critics.
"It's unclear why the Obama Administration allowed CMS to overpromise and under-deliver so badly on collecting these overpayments," Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, told Kaiser Health News in an email response to the findings.
He said CMS "should account for why this process seems to be so broken and why it can't seem to fix it, despite recommendations to do so. The taxpayers depend on getting this process right."
The failure to collect also alarmed Steve Ellis, vice president of the budget watchdog group Taxpayers for Common Sense in Washington.
"They need to put up a bigger and stronger fight to make sure these programs are operated on the straight and narrow," Ellis said.
Yet outside of public view, federal officials have been losing a high-stakes battle to curb widespread billing errors by Medicare Advantage plans, according to the records obtained through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit filed by the Center for Public Integrity.
The Center for Public Integrity first disclosed in 2014 that billions of tax dollars are wasted annually partly because some health plans appear to exaggerate how sick their patients are, a practice known in health care circles as "upcoding."
Last August, the investigative journalism group reported that 35 of 37 health plans CMS has audited overcharged Medicare, often by overstating the severity of medical conditions such as diabetes and depression.
The newly released CMS records identify the companies chosen for the initial 2007 audits as a Florida Humana plan, a Washington state subsidiary of United Healthcare called PacifiCare, an Aetna plan in New Jersey and an Independence Blue Cross plan in the Philadelphia area.
The fifth one focused on a Lovelace Medicare plan in New Mexico, which has since been acquired by Blue Cross.
Each of the five audits, which took more than two years to complete, unearthed significant — and costly — billing mistakes, though the plans disputed them.
For example, auditors couldn't confirm that one-third of the diseases the health plans had been paid to treat actually existed, mostly because patient records lacked "sufficient documentation of a diagnosis."
Overall, Medicare paid the wrong amount for nearly two-thirds of patients whose records were examined; all five plans were far more likely to charge too much than too little. For 1 in 5 patients, the overcharges were $5,000 or more for the year, according to the audits. None of the plans would discuss the findings.
As preliminary results of the audits started to roll in, CMS officials outlined steps to recover more than $128 million from the five plans at a confidential agency briefing in August 2010, according to a policy memo prepared for the meeting. The records don't indicate who attended.
That day, CMS set Humana's payment error at $33.5 million, PacifiCare at $20.2 million, Aetna at $27.6 million, Independence Blue Cross at nearly $34 million and Lovelace at just under $13 million. Those estimates were based on extrapolation of a sample of cases examined at each plan.
CMS "has developed a process for moving forward with payment recovery," according to a briefing paper from the 2010 meeting.
But that process fizzled after two years of haggling with the plans and insurance industry representatives, who argued the audits were flawed and the results unreliable. In August 2012, CMS gave in and notified the plans it would settle for a few cents on the dollar.
"Given this was a new process, the decision was made at the time to tie repayments to the actual claims reviewed as part of the 2007 pilot audit," said CMS spokesman Aaron Albright. "For subsequent audits, we said we intended to determine repayments by extrapolating the error rate of the sample of claims reviewed to all claims under the contract." Albright said more of the audits are underway. Allowing the insurers to dodge liability dealt a serious blow to the government's efforts to crack down on billing abuses — a setback one taxpayer advocate called alarming.
"That's a very bad way to operate the system." said Patrick Burns, acting executive director and president of Taxpayers Against Fraud in Washington, on hearing of the outcome. "Nobody is held accountable."
Indeed, CMS kept the settlement terms under wraps until 2015, after an inquiry by Grassley. The senator had requested details about Medicare Advantage fraud controls in response to articles published by the Center for cmcmsublic Integrity.
In a July 31, 2015 letter to Grassley, CMS Acting Administrator Andy Slavitt attached a table that showed the five plans repaid just under $3.4 million. The letter didn't mention the earlier estimate that the government was due $128 million. Grassley said it should not have taken the FOIA lawsuit to make that information available to the public.
Perhaps adding insult to injury, these numbers might never have seen the light of day without a lengthy lawsuit," Grassley said this week.
Paying based on risk scores
When Congress created the current Medicare Advantage program in 2003, it devised a new way to pay the health plans.
The method, phased in starting in 2004, seemed simple enough: pay higher rates for sicker patients and less for people in good health using a formula called a risk score.
But CMS officials soon realized that risk scores rose much faster at some plans than others, a possible sign of upcoding, or other billing irregularities, records show. These overcharges topped $4 billion in 2005, one CMS study found.
The special audits, called Risk Adjustment Data Validation, or RADV, were designed to identify, and hold accountable, health plans that couldn't justify their fees with supporting medical evidence.
Until these audits, CMS "pretty much went on the honor system with the plans," an unnamed agency official wrote in an undated presentation.
In the five 2007 pilot audits, two sets of auditors inspected medical records for a random sample of 201 patients at each plan. If the medical chart didn't properly document that a patient had the illnesses the plan had reported, Medicare wanted a refund. Auditors gave the plans the benefit of the doubt when auditors couldn't agree, according to the CMS briefing paper.
Finally, CMS applied a standard technique used in fraud investigations in which the payment error rate is extrapolated across the entire health plan, which greatly multiplies the amount due. CMS said it was conservative in assessing the penalties and allowed the plans to appeal.
Appeals or no, the health plans recoiled at the prospect they could be on the hook for millions of dollars they hadn't budgeted for and didn't believe they owed. The actual 2007 overage for the 201 Humana patients, for example, was $477,235. Once extrapolated, it soared to $33.5 million.
Michael S. Adelberg, a former CMS official who is now an industry consultant in Washington, said that in retrospect the audit process was "probably rushed."
Adelberg said the audits "raised strong industry concerns" on a variety of fronts, from whether CMS had the legal authority to conduct them to the soundness of their methods. CMS stands by its audit techniques and has defended RADV as the only way it can assure plans bill honestly.
Yet agency records released through the FOIA case suggest CMS lacked the will to press ahead with extrapolated audits for Medicare Advantage plans given the fierce industry backlash — even though they do so in overpayment cases targeting other types of medical providers.
One confidential CMS presentation dated March 30, 2011, notes that officials had received more than 500 comments expressing "significant resistance" to the RADV audits.
The presentation goes on to say the audit program's success depended on its "ability to address the challenges raised."
CMS didn't overcome those challenges. Instead, it agreed to settle the five initial audits for $3.4 million, just what it found in the patient files it reviewed — without the extrapolations. And the center did the same for 32 additional 2007 audits, which officials had predicted would refund up to $800 million to the federal treasury. In the end, CMS wound up with $10.3 million from the 32 plans.
The RADV program's shortcomings, though little known to the public, haven't gone totally unnoticed. The program was the target of a sharply critical May 2016 report by the Government Accountability Office, which noted that Medicare Advantage plans have overbilled the government by billions of dollars, but rarely been forced to repay the money or face other consequences.
The GAO, the watchdog arm of Congress, called for "fundamental improvements." The watchdogs also found that CMS has spent about $117 million on the audits, but recouped just under $14 million.
Government officials didn't dispute that the RADV process had taken far too long and yielded way too little. But while CMS has resumed extrapolated audits, there's little evidence it is speeding things up.
CMS expected to complete extrapolated audits for payments made in 2011 and finish the job in early 2014, agency records show.
But it has yet to do so. In late December, an agency spokesman said he had no new information about when the 2011 audits would be finished or how much the government would collect.
While the industry awaits the results, it has hardly warmed to the process.
America's Health Insurance Plans, an industry trade group, argued in a June 2016 position paper that RADV was "not yet stable and reliable," adding that the audits "could disrupt the care being provided by plans that are working hard to meet the needs of their enrollees."
John Gorman, a former government health care official and current industry consultant, said he expects RADV to forge ahead under the incoming administration. But he predicted efforts to collect overpayments will "slow down" because the Trump team will prove to be "more sympathetic" to business interests than the Obama administration. The Trump transition office did not respond to a request for comment.
Gorman said that while career civil servants at CMS decide which plans get audited, how much to assess the health plans as a result rests with "political appointees" who are susceptible to industry lobbying, which he termed "the old Potomac two-step."
But Grassley said he is determined to keep a close eye on the audit program. "I intend to press the incoming administration on holding CMS accountable for overpayments that harm taxpayers," he said.
Taxpayer advocate Ellis said with so much public money at stake, the government needs to step up its game.
"You can presume that the more people get away with overpayments the more they are going to take," he said. "As the program gets bigger the problem get bigger."
This story is a collaboration between Kaiser Health News and the Center for Public Integrity. Kaiser Health News, a nonprofit health newsroom whose stories appear in news outlets nationwide, is an editorially independent part of the Kaiser Family Foundation. The Center for Public Integrity is a nonpartisan, nonprofit investigative news organization. Schulte, formerly of the Center for Public Integrity, is now a senior correspondent at Kaiser Health News.
GOP leaders are vowing to make tort reform a key part of their replacement plan for the Affordable Care Act. Critics say the political agenda isn't addressing the bigger goal of reducing overall patient harm.
As top Republicans see it, a medical malpractice crisis is threatening U.S. health care: Frivolous lawsuits are driving up malpractice insurance premiums and forcing physicians out of business. Doctors and hospitals live in fear of litigation, ordering excessive tests and treatments that make health care unaffordable for Americans.
That's why Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan and Rep. Tom Price, tapped to be the nation's top health official by President-elect Donald Trump, are vowing to make tort reform a key part of their replacement plan for the Affordable Care Act.
But, according to researchers and industry experts, the reality doesn't match the GOP rhetoric. They say the nation's medical malpractice insurance industry is running smoothly and the last crisis dates back more than a decade.
"It's a wonderful time for doctors looking for coverage and it's never been better for insurers," said Michael Matray, editor of Medical Liability Monitor, a trade publication.
Doctors are paying less for malpractice insurance than they did in 2001 — without any inflation adjustment, according to the Doctors Company, one of the nation's largest malpractice insurers. And the rate of claims has dropped by half since 2003.
"It's a time of relative calm and this hasn't been a front burner issue or crisis," said Nicholas Pace, a researcher who studies the civil justice system at the Rand Corp., a nonprofit think tank. "But now Republicans see an opportunity to make changes they have wanted for a long time as they replace Obamacare."
Their proposals would make it easier for doctors to defend themselves in malpractice cases and raise the burden of proof on patients claiming to have been injured. Many Republicans also back sharp limits on damage awards, often citing California's landmark law capping noneconomic damages at $250,000 as a national model.
Price, an orthopedic surgeon in the Atlanta area for more than 20 years, has long championed "lawsuit abuse reform" as a way to reduce the nation's runaway health spending.
"We waste hundreds of billions of dollars due to lawsuit abuse in this country and the practice of defensive medicine," Price said in June at a press conference to promote the House Republicans' replacement plan for the health law. "Instead of just putting a Band-Aid on it, we propose a bold and robust solution."
But any such savings are vastly overstated, experts say. They warn that Republicans risk going too far in reducing consumer access to the justice system and fair compensation for medical mistakes.
Some academics and consumer advocates say the GOP political agenda isn't addressing the bigger goal of reducing overall patient harm. This year, researchers estimated that medical errors claim more than 250,000 lives annually, which would make it the nation's third-leading cause of death behind heart disease and cancer.
"What strikes me about these current proposals is that they really represent the agenda of medical professionals, which is all about limiting liability," said Michelle Mello, a Stanford University law professor and health researcher. "To take any malpractice reform seriously, it has to offer something to improve the situation of patients and lead to safer outcomes."
Although the costs are tough to quantify, studies suggest that about 3 percent of the nation's $3.2 trillion in health care spending, nearly $100 billion, is related to malpractice cases and defensive medicine (ordering unnecessary tests and treatments to protect against litigation). That's a considerable sum, but researchers have found that stronger legal protections don't necessarily change physician behavior and produce less expensive care.
House Republicans contend the costs are far greater — more than $300 billion annually. In a 2010 interview, Price went even higher, suggesting that defensive medicine accounted for a quarter of all U.S. health care spending.
Now Price and a Republican-controlled Congress are in a position to put their ideas for tort reform into law. Limits on malpractice damages are a perennial favorite of conservatives who say the current system merely serves trial lawyers fishing for a big payday.
Price's proposed legislation for replacing the Affordable Care Act doesn't include a cap on damage awards. But he has supported Ryan's "Better Way" plan that specifically cites the pioneering financial limits imposed in California as an effective solution.
California and other states "have shown that such reforms result in an increase in doctors, increased access to specialists, and reduction in medical liability insurance premiums," Ryan's plan says.
More than 30 states already have some form of cap on damages in malpractice suits. To varying extents, both industry officials and researchers credit state efforts to rein in litigation and payouts with helping to contain costs. Insurers say they're doing well but would welcome tort reform at a national level.
Researchers caution that caps are hardly the only factor in keeping premiums down, saying economic cycles and insurers' investment returns are also important forces. And they note that courts have struck down caps in some states as ineffective or unconstitutional.
Meanwhile, plaintiffs' lawyers say damage caps make them reluctant to take on cases, given the money often required for expert witnesses and trial preparation.
The caps "have some modest effects on costs, but it comes at a price of people being able to access the civil justice system," Mello said.
Caps on noneconomic damages for "pain and suffering" can also disproportionately hurt women and the elderly, who more often can't get significant economic damages because they aren't big wage earners.
California imposed its cap of $250,000 on noneconomic damages in 1975 and it has never been increased to keep pace with inflation.
A Rand study examined the outcomes in 257 medical malpractice trials in California during the late 1990s. The cap was triggered in nearly half of the cases that plaintiffs won, and the overall amount of damages was cut by 30 percent, from $421 million to $295 million.
That state law wiped out most of a $7 million jury award for noneconomic "pain and suffering" damages to the family of Steven Olsen in 1994. At 2 years old, Steven suffered brain damage and went blind after his doctors failed to administer a scan that would have detected an abscess on his brain, his family said.
Scott Olsen, Steven's father, said he left his job recently as a technical writer in Chula Vista, Calif., to care for his 26-year-old son, who can't feed or dress himself.
The family received $4 million in economic damages as part of the litigation. But Scott Olsen said "it's immoral that a jury doesn't get to decide the severity of the injury." He said those damage awards hold medical providers accountable and help prevent the same mistakes from hurting more patients.
A 2014 ballot measure that would have raised the California cap to more than $1.1 million failed to pass, garnering support from only a third of voters.
Another key proposal from Price calls for establishing clinical practice guidelines for physicians to follow and use to defend malpractice claims — an idea that has attracted bipartisan support in the past.
"If your doctor does the right thing for a given diagnosis or a given set of symptoms, they ought to be able to use it as an affirmative defense in a court of law," Price said in June at an event sponsored by the conservative American Enterprise Institute.
Experts say that only about 15 percent of malpractice cases would be affected by the adoption of clinical guidelines.
Price also has a more controversial proposal — to fund the creation of state-run tribunals to rule on injury claims. It would require patients to prove gross negligence by doctors, a higher legal standard than in civil court, and would create panels of medical experts to screen cases for merit.
Given all the competing assertions and proposals out there, and differing views even among Republicans, health policy experts urge a cautious approach on tort reform.
"You need solid empirical evidence before you move forward on national malpractice reform, not anecdotes or horror stories from a particular county in western New Hampshire," said Rand's Pace. "That is not how you decide to overhaul the entire system."
The federal government has cut payments to hospitals with high rates of patient injuries this year. Those hospitals will lose 1 percent of Medicare payments over the federal fiscal year, which runs from October 2016 through next September. Maryland hospitals are exempted from penalties because that state has a separate payment arrangement with Medicare.
New data shows bundled payments for joint replacement surgery could save Medicare billions of dollars — without impacting patient care. Tom Price, the president elect's HHS nominee, has actively opposed the idea.
A recent change in the way Medicare pays for joint replacements is saving millions of dollars annually — and could save billions — without impacting patient care, a new study has found. But the man Donald Trump has picked to be the secretary of Health and Human Services has vocally opposed the new mandatory payment program and is likely to revoke it.
Under the new program, Medicare effectively agrees to pay hospitals a set fee — a bundled payment — for all care related to hip or knee replacement surgery, from the time of the surgery until 90 days after. Traditionally hospitals collect payments for many components of care and rehabilitation individually.
Tom Price, the president elect's HHS nominee, a congressman from Georgia and an orthopedic surgeon, has actively opposed the idea of mandating bundled payments for these orthopedic operations, calling it "experimenting with Americans' health," in a letter to the Medicare agency just last September. In addition, the agency which designed and implemented the experiment, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation, was created by the Affordable Care Act to devise new methods for encouraging cost-effective care. It will disappear if the act is repealed, as President-elect Trump has promised to do.
The study appeared Tuesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Though one of its authors is Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania who helped design the ACA, the research relies on Medicare claims data from 2008 through mid-2015, long before the presidential election.
Starting in April 2016, CMS required around 800 hospitals in 67 cities to use the bundled payment model for joint replacements and 90 days of care after the surgery as part of the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement program. The program had previously been road-tested on a smaller number of hospitals on a voluntary basis, which formed the focus of the research.
The study found that hospitals saved an average of 8 percent under the program, and some saved much more. Price has been skeptical that bundled payments did save money, but the researchers estimate that if every hospital used this model, it would save Medicare $2 billion annually.
The bundled payment program works like this: For some specific kinds of medical procedures, including joint replacements or some heart surgeries, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services will add up the costs for the entire episode, from the hospital stay and medical supplies to the rehabilitation afterwards. If the total costs are below a target set by CMS, the hospital gets to keep the savings. If not, the hospital has to pay Medicare the difference. It's supposed to incentivize more efficient spending and better care coordination between providers, so they can lower costs.
In practice, it seems to be working. Baptist Health System, a network of five hospitals in San Antonio, saved an average of $5,577 on each joint replacement without sacrificing the quality of care, according to the study. Baptist was an early adopter of bundled payments; it began experimenting with them in 2008. Over seven years, the hospital system has cut Medicare's costs on knee replacements by almost 21 percent.
The savings came without impacting quality. Patients at Baptist Health System were just as likely to be readmitted to the hospital or end up in the emergency room as patients nationally. There was some indication that quality of care may be better, fewer patients under bundled payments had long, extended hospital stays.
In Price's letter from September, he said that Medicare had exceeded its powers in imposing such bundled payments, which he said took decisions out of the hands of doctors and patients.
That doesn't seem to be the case, according to Dr. Amol Navathe, an assistant professor of medicine and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania, and one of the authors of the JAMA study. Instead, Navathe and his colleagues suggest that the bundled payments actually fostered greater collaboration between surgeons, administrators and patients because programs could only succeed in saving money if physicians were engaged in creating standardized pathways for care.
For example, the Baptist Health System saved about 30 percent on implant costs, around $2,000 on each artificial joint, by using the least expensive medically equivalent implants as determined by the hospitals' surgeons.
Usually, physicians are prevented from benefitting when hospitals save money because of anti-kickback laws. Waivers under bundled payment models mean surgeons can put in the time to find the best, most cost-effective implants, and share in some of that savings.
"It takes that extra level of effort and coordination, and proactively communicate with [patients]," Navathe said. "Preplanning, setting of expectations and communicating up-front is resource intensive, when they have the incentive to do that they were willing to expend the extra resources to make that happen."
When bundles included care after a patient's hospital stay, spending on rehabilitation went down 54 percent. That's because hospitals took the time to match patients to the right level of care, Navathe said.
Patients who didn't need to stay in a nursing home or rehab center were set up with home health care or physical therapy.
Price has objected to CMS making bundled payments mandatory, calling it an instance of federal overreach. But bundled payments only work if everyone has to participate, according to Darshak Sanghavi, the former director of prevention and population health at the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation.
If hospitals can choose whether or not to participate, only the ones that are already delivering care efficiently –and coming in under CMS's cost target — will use bundles and Medicare will constantly be paying out bonuses. The system needs to be mandatory, Sanghavi said, to pull in less efficient hospitals and give them incentive to change.
"Stopping the programs for ideological reasons I think impedes innovation in a way that is going to consign us to having really, really high costs of care that's going to continue in the future," Sanghavi said.
Bundled payments aren't just for hip and knee replacements. On December 20, CMS announced it would expand mandatory bundled payments to treatments for heart attacks, bypass surgery and cardiac rehab beginning in July 2017. In its waning days, the Obama Administration is effectively throwing down the gauntlet to the incoming administration on bundled payments, one of its signature reforms.
An ALS patient wanted to donate his organs when he died. He asked to be admitted to the hospital specifically to end his life. And despite the planning, his request made some people uncomfortable.
At 44 years old, Dave Adox was facing the end of his two-year battle with ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig's disease. He needed a ventilator to breathe and couldn't move any part of his body, except his eyes. Once he started to struggle with his eyes — his only way to communicate — Adox decided it was time to die.
He wanted to donate his organs, to give other people a chance for a longer life. To do this, he'd need to be in a hospital when he went off the ventilator.
"I was always interested in organ donation and had checked the box on my license," Adox said last spring at his home in South Orange, N.J., through a machine that spoke for him. He laboriously spelled out these words, letter by letter, by focusing his eyes on a tablet.
"When I got diagnosed with ALS at 42, and the disease paralyzed my entire body in six months, I definitely developed a greater appreciation of the value of the working human body," he said.
Adox and his husband, Danni Michaeli, made a plan. They would go to University Hospital in Newark, N.J., where Adox often had been treated, and have his ventilator disconnected. The doctors there had reassured Adox he could ask to come off the ventilator anytime.
In May his family and friends flew in from around the country, and joined neighbors for a big celebration of Adox's life. They spent one last weekend with him, planting a tree and painting a big, colorful mural in his honor. Some wore T-shirts printed with Adox's motto, "Celebrate everything until further notice."
But their plan suddenly changed when University Hospital's attorneys intervened.
"At the 11th hour, they emailed us and said their lawyers had stopped the process because they were afraid it looked too much like assisted suicide," Adox explained. "I was crushed."
Every day, physicians withdraw life support on behalf of patients in hospitals who choose to refuse care. That's generally not considered physician-assisted suicide or euthanasia — the key being that the patient is already in the hospital.
But Adox was asking to be admitted to the hospital specifically to end his life. And despite the planning, his request made some people uncomfortable.
Dr. John Bach, a professor of physical medicine rehabilitation and neurology at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, which is affiliated with University Hospital, was Adox's primary physician. Bach understood and approved of his patient's plan to end his life and share his organs.
"I could have given [him] a prescription for morphine and he could have been taken off the ventilator at home," Bach said. "But he wanted his organs to be used to save other people's lives!"
Other physicians at the hospital supported Adox's plan, too.
"We have an ethics committee that approved it 100 percent," Bach said. "We have a palliative care committee — they all agreed, 100 percent. But it didn't make any difference to the lawyers of our hospital."
University Hospital has declined several requests for comment, but Bach said the hospital's attorneys were concerned about liability.
"The legal issue is: What is euthanasia?" Bach explained. "Are you killing a patient by taking him off a respirator that's keeping him alive?"
Previously, hospital staff had helped Adox complete an advance directive that stated, "I do not want medical treatment that will keep me alive if I have an incurable and irreversible illness and the burdens of continued life with life-sustaining treatment become greater than the benefits I experience."
Having an advance directive on file is especially important for ALS patients, Bach said, because they can eventually become "locked in," unable to express their wishes.
"To be locked in means you cannot move anything at all — not a finger, not a millimeter," Bach said. "You cannot move your eyes; you cannot move your tongue; you cannot move your facial muscles at all. You cannot even wink to say yes or no."
In this particular case, the hospital wouldn't have had to rely on the directive, Bach noted; Adox was still fully capable of expressing his wishes clearly. It deeply troubled the physician that his patient's wishes could not be met.
"Myself and all the other doctors that took care of him in the hospital were almost as upset about it as he and his husband were," Bach said.
Dr. Joshua Mezrich, a transplant surgeon at the University of Wisconsin Hospital, has had patients with ALS who, like Adox, wanted to donate organs. He believes hospitals need to create protocols for these situations — even though such cases are rare.
Mezrich acknowledges this could challenge a key principle for physicians: First, do no harm. But that mandate can and should be interpreted broadly, he believes.
"I think it's fair to say that doing no harm doesn't always mean making people live as long as possible — keeping them alive no matter what," Mezrich said. "Sometimes, it means letting them have the death that they want, and it means letting them give this gift, if that's what they want."
Typically a separate team of physicians or an organ procurement team discusses donation with family members after a patient dies, to avoid any tones — whether real or perceived — of coercion or conflict of interest, Caplan pointed out.
"You'd have to change the culture of critical care and say it's OK to talk with the person about organ donation as part of their dying," he explained.
This issue may get bigger, Caplan believes, as states move to legalize physician-assisted death. Although, so far, there has been little public discussion because "it's too controversial."
"If we went in the direction of bringing more people who are dying — whether it's ALS or whatever it is — into settings where we could have them consider organ donation because they're on the machines, we'd probably have a bigger pool of organ donors," Caplan said.
But that approach would have a downside, too, he continued. People might perceive doctors as more focused on "getting organs" than caring for dying patients.
There is at least one hospital that has established a policy for patients with ALS who want to be organ donors. Froedtert Hospital and its partner Medical College of Wisconsin, in Milwaukee, approved such a policy in May.
About a year ago there, a patient with ALS wanted to donate her organs, but the hospital wasn't able to honor her wish. The experience prompted physicians to develop a multistep system that includes evaluation from psychologists, an ethics review and considers technical matters such as transportation or insurance coverage.
"Obviously we're all sensitive to any perception of assisted expedition of death," said Dr. William Rilling, vice chair of clinical operations of radiology at Froedtert Hospital. "But, at the end of the day, the patient's wishes count for a lot."
After University Hospital declined to admit Adox, he and his husband reached out to six other hospitals through various intermediaries. They waited for days to hear back.
In the end, LiveOnNY, the organ procurement organization based in New York City, stepped in to help. The organization's medical director, Dr. Amy Friedman, went to visit Adox at his home to vet his suitability as a donor.
"There was a hospital partner," Friedman said, "that felt very supportive of this circumstance, understood the challenges that they would be faced with, [and was] prepared to be supportive of what Dave wanted and would be able to provide a bed."
Finally, on the palliative care floor at Mount Sinai Hospital on May 18, Adox and Michaeli prepared to say their goodbyes.
"We sat; we listened to '80s music. I read Dave a poem," Michaeli recounted, close to tears. "And when they were really sure — and we were all really sure — that he was in a deep state of sedation, they disconnected his breathing machine."
And in the end, Adox's wishes were met — he was able to donate his liver and kidneys. Michaeli said he felt "an incredible swelling of gratitude" to the hospital team who helped make that happen.
"The person we were trying to do a direct donation for was a match," Michaeli said. "And he has Dave's kidney right now."
Under the new rules, physicians will be compensated for legwork involved in working in teams — including nurses, social workers and psychiatrists — to improve care for seniors with illnesses such as diabetes, heart failure and hypertension.
Doctors have complained for years that they're not paid adequately for time-consuming work associated with managing care for seriously ill older patients: consulting with other specialists, talking to families and caregivers, interacting with pharmacists and more.
Under the new rules, physicians will be compensated for legwork involved in working in teams — including nurses, social workers and psychiatrists — to improve care for seniors with illnesses such as diabetes, heart failure and hypertension.
Care coordination for these "high need" patients will be rewarded, as will efforts to ensure that seniors receive effective treatments for conditions such as anxiety or depression.
Comprehensive evaluations of older adults with suspected cognitive impairment will get a lift from new payments tied to the standards that physicians now will be required to follow.
The new Medicare policies reflect heightened attention to the costliest patients in the health care system — mostly older adults who have multiple chronic conditions that put them at risk of disability, hospitalization, and an earlier-than-expected death. Altogether, 10 percent of patients account for 65 percent of the nation's health spending.
It remains to be seen how many physicians will embrace the services that the government will now reimburse. Organizations that advocated for the new payment policies hope they'll make primary care and geriatrics more attractive areas of practice in the years ahead.
Here's a look at what is entailed:
Complex Chronic Care Management
Two years ago, Medicare began paying nurses, social workers and medical assistants to coordinate care for seniors with two or more serious chronic conditions. But low reimbursement and burdensome requirements discouraged most medical practices from taking this on.
New payments for "complex chronic care management" are more generous (an average $93.67 for the first hour, $47.01 for each half hour thereafter) and can be billed more often, making them more attractive.
They'll cover services such as managing seniors' transitions from the hospital back home or to a rehabilitation center, coordinating home-based services, connecting patients with resources, and educating caregivers about their conditions.
Many practices will be able to hire care managers with this new financial support, said Dr. Peter Hollmann, secretary of the American Geriatrics Society and chief medical officer of University Medicine, a medical group practice associated with Brown University's medical school.
To illustrate the benefits, he tells of a recent patient, with diabetes, hypertension and heart failure who was retaining fluid and had poorly controlled blood sugar. After a care manager began calling the 72-year-old man every few days, asking if he was checking his blood sugar or gaining weight, Hoffmann adjusted doses of insulin and diuretics.
"The patient remained at home and he's doing well, and we likely prevented a hospitalization," Hoffmann said.
Cognitive Impairment Assessment
Making a dementia diagnosis is difficult, and primary care physicians often fail to do so on a timely basis. But new Medicare policies may help change that by specifying what cognitive examinations should entail and offering enhanced payments.
Physicians who conduct these evaluations are now expected to meet 10 requirements. In addition to performing a careful physical exam and taking a detailed history, they need to assess an older adult's ability to perform activities of daily living, their safety, behavioral and neuropsychiatric symptoms, and caregivers' knowledge, needs and abilities.
All the medications the senior is taking should be evaluated, and standardized tests used to assess cognition. Efforts to elicit the patient's goals and values need to occur in the context of advance planning, and a care plan must be crafted and shared with caregivers.
Medicare will pay $238.30 for the initial assessment and additional fees for creating a care plan and performing care management.
"Hopefully, this will kick start the development of practices that provide these dementia-related services," said Dr. Robert Zorowitz, senior medical director at OptumCare CarePlus, a managed Medicare long-term care program in New York City.
Care Between Patient Visits
Until now, the rule has been: if the doctor is with a patient, he can bill for his time. But if he takes home medical records to review at night or talks by phone with a caregiver who's concerned about her elderly mother, that time goes unpaid.
That will change next year: Medicare will begin paying $113.41 for the first hour spent in these kind of activities and $54.55 for every subsequent half hour.
For the first time, "this recognizes the significant and valuable services that physicians perform in between face-to-face visits," said Dr. Phillip Rodgers, co-chair of the public policy committee at the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine.
Physicians will also get extra reimbursement for extra time they spend in person with complex patients or their caregivers.
Dr. Paul Tatum, an associate professor of clinical family and community medicine at the University of Missouri School of Medicine recently scheduled a half hour for a patient in his mid-70s with high blood pressure, kidney disease, skin issues and cognitive impairment. But the visit ran to 90 minutes when it became clear the gentleman was more confused than ever, falling, not eating well, not taking medications, and needed more help.
"Much of what we did for this patient fits in the new Medicare codes, which recognize the extent of what's needed to care for people with complex illnesses," the doctor said.
Integrating Behavior Health Research has shown the seniors with depression — a frequent complication of serious illness — benefit when primary care physicians collaborate with psychologists or psychiatrists and care managers track their progress.
Now, Medicare will begin paying $142.84 for the first 70 minutes that physicians and behavioral health providers work together, $126.33 for the next hour, and $66.04 per half hour for a care manager who stays in touch with patients and tracks whether they're improving.
Care managers may work on site or off; psychologists and psychiatrists will be called for consultations, as needed.
"Accessing mental health services is a really big problem for my patients, and having professionals ready to work with me and compensated to do so will be extraordinarily valuable," said Rodgers of the hospice and palliative medicine academy.
Medicare is contemplating whether it will help pay for knee replacement surgeries outside the hospital, either in free-standing surgery centers or outpatient facilities.
Five years ago, Dr. Ira Kirschenbaum, an orthopedic surgeon in the Bronx who replaces more than 200 knees each year, would have considered it crazy to send a patient home the same day as a knee replacement operation.
And yet there he was this year, as the patient, home after a few hours. A physician friend pierced his skin at 8 a.m. at a Seattle-area surgery center. By lunch, Kirschenbaum was resting at his friend's home, with no pain and a new knee.
"I'm amazed at how well I'm doing," Kirschenbaum, 59, said recently in a phone interview, nine weeks after the operation.
What felt to Kirschenbaum like a bold experiment may soon become far more standard. Medicare, which spends several billions of dollars a year on knee replacements for its beneficiaries — generally Americans 65 and over — is contemplating whether it will help pay for knee replacement surgeries outside the hospital, either in free-standing surgery centers or outpatient facilities.
The issue is sowing deep discord in the medical world, and the debate is as much about money as medicine. Some physicians are concerned that moving the surgeries out of hospitals will land vulnerable patients in the emergency room with uncontrolled pain, blood clots or other complications.
But proponents of the change say it can give patients more choice and potentially better care, as well as save Medicare hundreds of millions of dollars. Already, an "overwhelming majority" of commenters said they want to allow the surgeries out of hospitals, according to recent rule-making documents.
The final decision, which could come within a year, would also act as a test of sorts for Donald Trump and his new administration. They will weigh whether to limit government controls, as Trump has often suggested, or to bend to pressure from hospitals and doctors, many of whom oppose the change.
"I think the question will come down to two things," said David Muhlestein, senior director for research at Leavitt Partners, a leading health consulting firm. "It's the balance of trying to reduce regulations and let the market function — and the competing interest of vested parties."
Demand for total knee replacements is growing — 660,000 are performed each year in the United States. That number is likely to jump to two million annually by 2030, making this complex and expensive operation one of surgery's biggest potential growth markets.
Even if the policy change is made, Medicare would still pay for patients to get traditional inpatient surgery. But with the agency also paying for the bulk of outpatient procedures, there would be a huge shift in money — out of hospitals and into surgery centers. Medicare could save hundreds of millions of dollars if it no longer needed to pay for multiple-day stays at the hospital. Investors at the outpatient centers could profit greatly, as could some surgeons, because doctors often have an ownership stake in the outpatient centers where they operate.
Whether the shift is beneficial for patients remains an open question. Medicare patients tend to spend nearly three days in a hospital, data shows. Forty percent of Medicare patients also spend time in a rehabilitation facility for further recovery. The data, which reflects knee replacement operations from 2014, suggests that Medicare patients are taking advantage of the post-operation support at hospitals and aftercare centers. Given that, it is unclear the percentage of eligible patients who would choose outpatient care.
But improvements in surgery — from new medicines to control bleeding to better pain management techniques — mean that, for some patients, the days of close medical supervision are no longer necessary.
Kirschenbaum, who is in favor of the change, acknowledged that outpatient surgery would be the right move for only a small subset of his Medicare patients — perhaps 10 to 15 percent — who have good caretaking at home and few chronic health issues. But it would not be for the people who are frail, live alone or in a dwelling with stairs, he said. The decision about whether an outpatient surgery should be done instead of an inpatient one tends to be made by the physician and patient.
"We want to make sure patients — when they go home, they're safe, no question," said Kirschenbaum, the chairman of orthopedics at Bronx-Lebanon Hospital Center and a founder of SwiftPath, a company that offers technical support to outpatient joint replacement centers.
Perhaps of equal concern to patients are the financial consequences, because even though less care is given, outpatient procedures require higher out-of-pocket costs for patients. Medicare covers inpatient procedures 100 percent, with no patient copayment. Outpatient procedures, though, require patients to contribute a 20 percent copayment, which would easily add up to thousands of dollars in the case of knee surgery.
The battle lines over outpatient knee replacements began forming in 2012, when Medicare first considered removing the surgeries from its "inpatient only" list of invasive and complicated medical procedures. Many orthopedic doctors and hospitals rose up in protest, calling the proposal "ludicrous" and "dangerous" and prompting Medicare to abandon the idea.
Dr. Charles Moon, who has performed knee replacement surgeries at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, fired off a letter at the time saying that knee replacement patients stayed at his hospital for 2.5 days on average, and that that was "considered borderline safe" given the need to monitor patients' response to clot-busting medications.
Other objectors cited research showing that patients who received knee replacements as outpatients were twice as likely to die shortly afterward, and that even one-day-stay hospital patients were twice as likely to need a follow-up surgery, compared with those who remained inpatients longer.
"While we realize this can be good for some patients, it's not for all patients and all locations," said Dr. Thomas C. Barber, the chairman for the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons' advocacy council.
Yet the proposal has gained renewed momentum, backed aggressively by some surgeons and surgery center investors who say that their accumulating experience justifies the change. In recent months, Medicare has signaled a strong interest in outpatient knee replacements, noting the potential for "overall improved outcomes" as well as the potential savings for the government program.
The final decision is made by Medicare officials in the annual course of proposing changes, seeking public input and announcing a final rule. If Medicare does decide to make a change, it would probably not be put into effect until a year or so later.
In an interview, Thomas Wilson, the chief executive of the for-profit Monterey Peninsula Surgery Centers, an outpatient clinic, said his doctors have replaced knees of hundreds of adults — 59 years old on average, but up to 82 — with low complication rates and sky-high satisfaction rates. He said advances in surgical technique, anesthetics and patient education make it possible.
Presented with such evidence, a panel that recommends hospital outpatient payment policies to Medicare officials unanimously recommended in August that Medicare remove the procedure from the "inpatient only" payment list.
Wilson said that as a first step, doctors should use strict criteria for choosing which patients are good candidates, like a low to moderate body mass index and a healthy heart and lungs.
Patients who meet the criteria are teamed with a friend or family member who works as a coach. The patient and coach attend an educational session before the operation, and the coach is also there to help after.
The patient is typically discharged after 23 hours in the outpatient center, and a home health service or private nurse follows up. Patients also go on to physical therapy.
"Our mix is like our regular mix of patients," said Wilson, whose center advertises a knee replacement surgery for $17,030. "It's not what we call unicorns, not 49-year-old marathon runners. These are average folks who need to have a knee or hip replaced and they're generally not sick."
But Barber and others worry that moving the procedure outside the hospital could become a norm or an expectation, even though some patients, especially those with complicating conditions like diabetes and heart disease, need the added support of a hospital team. Patient safety could be compromised, they warned.
Kirschenbaum said undergoing surgery has changed the way he approaches patients. Now he can roll up his pant leg, show a scar and tell them: "You can do this, too."
In the operating room, "with a knife in my hand, nothing has changed," he said. "But what has changed is how we treat them before and after. The education, support and being available — it's very important."