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Employer Medical Costs Forecast to Rise at More Than Double the Inflation Rate

Analysis  |  By Steven Porter  
   September 13, 2019

The projections present an opportunity for healthcare organizations to intervene where U.S. employees spend a big chunk of their time: at work.

The amount of money U.S. employers spend on medical benefits for their workers is expected to rise at about the same rate next year as it did this year.

Those costs are forecast to increase 6.5% in 2020, more than doubling the anticipated 2.7% general inflation rate, according to the expectations of Aon, a global professional services firm, as outlined in the company's report on 2020 medical trend rates.

The increase is attributable to higher specialty drug costs, moderate increases in provider prices, and utilization rates that are either even or declining, according to Aon's analysis.

Although the projections are stable compared to recent years, they represent an opportunity for healthcare organizations to alleviate a pain point for employers, who are among the nation's top purchasers of care.

The biggest threats to the sustained health and wellness of the American workforce are well-known, according to the report: physical inactivity, poor nutrition, obesity, substance abuse, and aging-related ailments. Some of those risks may be mitigated by encouraging healthier behavior.

"Many of the risk factors lead to chronic conditions with long-term medical costs that make them difficult to treat and result in long-term medical cost increases," said Tim Nimmer, Aon's global chief actuary for Health Solutions, in a statement.

"As a large portion of our waking hours are spent on the job, the workplace is a logical place to create a healthier culture and change behaviors," Nimmer added.

Employers should consider beginning with a strong plan design and financial strategy, but once that foundation has been laid, they should actively promote a healthy workforce by making timely care and chronic condition management available, reducing the risk of accident and illness, educating workers, and nudging employees to engage in healthier behaviors, according to the report.

Some health systems have responded to these needs by pursuing direct-to-employer contracts, launching risk-based models to improve the overall health of an employee population, or competing for recognition from employers as an elite provider of high-quality care.

Whatever your strategic tack, it should take into account the employer's evolving role in the equation.

Related: National Health Spending Growth to Average 5.5% Annually Through 2027

Steven Porter is an associate content manager and Strategy editor for HealthLeaders, a Simplify Compliance brand.

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