When the Senate reform bill was released the middle of last week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) maintained that he had the 60 votes needed to proceed with the healthcare debate in the Senate. When it came time to vote in a rare Saturday night session, his prediction proved true.
But can he guarantee that those votes will still be there when the Senate floor debate concludes—presumably by late December?
On Nov. 30, following a short congressional recess during Thanksgiving week, amendments will be permitted to be introduced on the Senate floor for what is now called the "Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act." Reid, charged with piloting the legislation through, said after the vote on Saturday that "we have the momentum to keep this process moving."
While "not all 60 senators in my caucus agree on every aspect of this bill," about 90% of the bill has agreement among Senate Democrats, Reid told reporters after the vote. "All Democrats do believe now is the time to make sure all Americans can access affordable health insurance."
It will be that 10% of the bill, though—which includes the public insurance option—that could be challenging and make or break acceptance of the bill. Four senators—Ben Nelson (D-NE), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Mary Landrieu (D-LA), and Joseph Liberman (I-CT)—had said that while they would vote to put the bill into play, they wouldn't go for a bill that contained the current public option.
In speaking on the Senate floor on Saturday, Lincoln specified that while she would vote to put the bill into play, "I am opposed to a new government-administered healthcare plan as part of comprehensive health insurance reform, and I will not vote in favor of the proposal that has been introduced by Leader Reid."
"Although [Sen. Reid] made a lot of progress in blending bills together, I don't think anybody thinks that this bill will pass as is," said Lieberman, on the Sunday morning NBC television show, "Meet the Press." "I voted last night, as 59 others did, to go ahead with the debate because I want us to begin not only debating healthcare reform, but doing something about healthcare reform."
"The public option, a government run insurance company ... [is something] people don't understand what it is, or what it's going to do. It doesn't offer free insurance. It won't get one more poor person insurance," Lieberman said. "It won't force one insurance company to give insurance to somebody who's got a pre-existing condition. And it won't even lower the cost of health insurance, which the advocates said it originally would."
However, this 60-member caucus has shown "unity throughout ... every time there's a major challenge, the caucus comes together for the good of the nation," said Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) on CBS' "Face the Nation." "This has been debated for a long, long time. And now the time is to act."
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), a strong supporter of the public option, said that in the end, "I don't want four Democratic senators dictating to the other 56 of us and to the country—when the public option has this much support—that it's not going to be in it."
He told CNN that in the end "I don't think they want to be on the wrong side of history—I don't think they want to go back and say on a procedural vote, I killed the most important bill in my political career."
In addition, the current Senate bill will be under pressure of Senate Republicans who want "not to end the debate—but change the debate," as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said Saturday. A frequent appeal expected from the Republicans during the debate is "to start over" with a new bill that will include areas, such as tort reform and insurance coverage that crosses state lines.
Also, Republicans likely will hone in on key tax provisions (such as taxes on devices or high-cost plans), which would go into effect immediately in 2010—while changes in insurance coverage, for instance, would not go into effect until 2014 or 2015. "The status for them will remain quo," said Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT).
Reid knows that keeping the 60 votes will be a challenge, but he's showing an optimistic view. "We can see the finish line, but it is not there yet."