Fifteen states could run out of hospital beds and another 12 states could reach or exceed 75% of their hospital bed capacity if 35% of Americans were to get sick from the H1N1 flu virus, according to a report released today by the Trust for America's Health.
In response to the outbreak, states and hospitals could cut the number of non-flu related discretionary hospitalizations, according to the TFAH researchers.
The new report, "H1N1 Challenges Ahead," based those numbers on estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's FluSurge model.
"Health departments and communities around the country are racing against the clock as the pandemic unfolds," said Jeff Levi, PhD, executive director of TFAH, a nonprofit organization that promotes making disease prevention a national priority. "The country's much more prepared than we were a few short years ago for a pandemic, but there are some long-term underlying problems, which complicate response efforts, like surge capacity and the need to modernize core public health areas like communications and surveillance capabilities."
If 35% of Americans become sick with H1N1, the researchers said that Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington would be at or exceed hospital bed capacity.
Twelve states would be between 75% and 99% of their hospital bed capacity: Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, and Wisconsin.
The report suggests a number of short-term and long-term recommendations to address potential problems with H1N1.
Short-term recommendations
- Refine plans for rapid distribution and administration of vaccinations
- Reach out to encourage young adults, minorities, and other at-risk groups to get vaccinated
- Enhance vaccine tracking systems to monitor adverse reactions
- Improve payment system for vaccine administration
- Develop and disseminate strong public messages about ways to practice proper hygiene and understand symptoms and remedies
Long-term recommendations
- Establish more regional consortiums to organize and plan for public health emergencies
- Recruit additional medically-trained staff for times of emergency
- Create clear and practice plans to respond to emergencies or major influx of patients
- Modernize U.S. disease surveillance systems
- Modernize core public health infrastructure capabilities, such as technology and equipment to support core functions, including laboratory testing and communications
- Revise pandemic plans continually
The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation supported the report through a grant.