One in 10 U.S. adults has diabetes now, but as many as one in three adults could have diabetes by 2050 if current trends continue, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analysis shows.
The prevalence is expected to rise sharply over the next 40 years due to an aging population more likely to develop type 2 diabetes, increases in minority groups that are at high risk for type 2 diabetes, and people with diabetes living longer, CDC projections published in Population Health Metrics show.
The projections are higher than previous estimates because the study factored in aging, minority populations and lifespan. The report predicts that the number of diabetes cases each year will increase from eight per 1,000 people in 2008, to 15 per 1,000 in 2050, and that the number of Americans with diabetes will range from one in 3 to one in 5 by 2050, reflecting differing assumptions about how many people will develop diabetes, and how long they will live.
"These are alarming numbers that show how critical it is to change the course of type 2 diabetes," said Ann Albright, director of CDC's Division of Diabetes Translation. "Successful programs to improve lifestyle choices on healthy eating and physical activity must be made more widely available, because the stakes are too high and the personal toll too devastating to fail."
Proper diet and physical activity can reduce the risk of diabetes and help to control the condition. Prevention programs directed at groups at high risk of type 2 diabetes can reduce future increases in diabetes prevalence, but will not eliminate them, the report says.
The projection that one-third of all U.S. adults will have diabetes by 2050 assumes that recent increases in new cases of diabetes will continue, and people with diabetes will live longer, which adds to the total number of people with the disease.
Projected increases in U.S. diabetes prevalence also reflect the growth in the disease internationally. An estimated 285 million people worldwide had diabetes in 2010, according to the International Diabetes Federation. The federation predicts as many as 438 million will have diabetes by 2030.
Diabetes was the seventh-leading cause of death in 2007, and is the leading cause of new cases of blindness among adults under age 75, kidney failure, and non-accident/injury leg and foot amputations among adults. People with diagnosed diabetes have medical costs that are more than twice that of those without the disease. The total costs of diabetes are an estimated $174 billion annually, including $116 billion in direct medical costs. About 24 million Americans have diabetes, and one-quarter of them do not know they have it.
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John Commins is a content specialist and online news editor for HealthLeaders, a Simplify Compliance brand.