A new report predicts a surplus of some nurses, but a shortage of others.
For the past several years, the workforce shortage in healthcare has persisted, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nurses in particular have felt the impact of the shortage, and CNOs have been working around the clock to recruit and retain the best talent possible to bridge the gaps.
However, the numbers seem to be shifting, depending on the profession.
A new report by Mercer predicts that by 2028, there will be an estimated overall surplus of nearly 30,000 registered nurses (RNs) across the country. Some states will still likely experience shortages, including East Coast states such as New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, which are predicted to fall short by 16,000 RNs.
Unfortunately, the prognosis is not as positive for other nursing positions.
Nurse practitioners
According to the Mercer report, there will be a nationwide shortage of nurse practitioners (NPs), despite this category having the fastest predicted growth rate at 3.5%.
The report emphasizes that NPs are a critical component of preventative care delivery in the country, and they will remain so in the future. A shortage of NPs could mean disruptions to primary and preventative care delivery, especially when combined with predicted physician shortages.
The report recommends that health systems in states with smaller shortages or surpluses continue to monitor their markets to recruit NPs.
Nurse assistants
For nursing assistants (NAs), the report predicts a shortage of more than 73,000 nationwide. According to the report, NAs make up 8% of the healthcare workforce in the United States, and they were 40% of healthcare support occupations in 2023.
Texas, California, and New York are the states that are likely to experience the greatest NA shortages, which will have a ripple effect on the rest of the nursing industry. The report explains that a lack of NAs will increase workloads for RNs, which can lead to more burnout and increased turnover rates.
Moving forward
So, what can CNOs do?
CNOs must continue to focus on recruitment and retention strategies that consider the needs of their nurses. Offering benefits such as flexible scheduling and career advancement opportunities will entice nurses to come and stay at health systems as well as reduce burnout.
Jennifer Croland, vice president and CNO at OSF HealthCare Saint Francis Medical Center, previously emphasized to HealthLeaders the importance of flexible scheduling and listening to frontline nurses.
"The first thing that I would say needs to be done is you have to listen to the front line and really understand what it is that they're telling us," Croland said. "I think just admitting to ourselves that what we're doing is not working is the first step."
The Mercer report recommends a four-pronged approach to tackling these potential shortages and surpluses.
- Understand specific supply and demand needs by occupation and department
- Strengthen your labor supply pipeline
- Retain existing talent
- Lower staffing demands
For more information, view the entire report here.
G Hatfield is the CNO editor for HealthLeaders.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
By 2028, there will be an estimated overall surplus of nearly 30,000 registered nurses (RN) across the country.
There will be a nationwide shortage of both nurse practitioners and nurse assistants in the next four years.
CNOs must continue to focus on recruitment and retention strategies that consider the needs of their nurses to combat these shortages.